Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is a branded product retailer. The company is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.74% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $107.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.45% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OLLI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 9, 2021
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 3.3552
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0947
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0947) – 1
= 46.05%
December 9, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y408)
= Exp(a + b × X408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3552 + 0.0007 × 589 + 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(3.9771)
= $53.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y408)
= Exp(a + b × X408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3552 + 0.0007 × 589 – 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(3.5983)
= $36.54
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3552 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(4.8846)
= $132.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3552 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(4.5058)
= $90.54
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.74% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $107.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 7, 2022
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 3.1494
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0752
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0752) – 1
= 35.07%
December 7, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y658)
= Exp(a + b × X658 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 952 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1494 + 0.0009 × 952 + 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(4.1295)
= $62.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y658)
= Exp(a + b × X658 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 952 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1494 + 0.0009 × 952 – 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(3.8288)
= $46.01
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1494 + 0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(4.8903)
= $133.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1494 + 0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(4.5897)
= $98.46
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.45% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.