Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is a branded product retailer. The company is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.15% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $77.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.00% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OLLI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 7, 2021
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 3.2225
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0980
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0980) – 1
= 48.01%
December 7, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y649)
= Exp(a + b × X649 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 939 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2225 + 0.0006 × 939 + 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(4.0162)
= $55.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y649)
= Exp(a + b × X649 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 939 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2225 + 0.0006 × 939 – 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(3.6241)
= $37.49
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2225 + 0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(4.5794)
= $97.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2225 + 0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(4.1873)
= $65.84
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.15% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $77.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 19, 2023
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 4.2246
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0371
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0371) – 1
= 16.00%
July 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,528 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2246 + 0.0001 × 1,528 + 2 × 0.0371)
= Exp(4.3818)
= $79.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,528 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2246 + 0.0001 × 1,528 – 2 × 0.0371)
= Exp(4.2334)
= $68.95
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2246 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0371)
= Exp(4.3979)
= $81.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2246 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0371)
= Exp(4.2495)
= $70.07
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.00% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.