Etsy Inc (ETSY)
Etsy, Inc. is an American e-commerce company focused on handmade or vintage items and craft supplies. These items fall under a wide range of categories, including jewelry, bags, clothing, home decor and furniture, toys, art, as well as craft supplies and tools.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.03% per annum.
- ETSY price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $61.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.46% per annum.
- ETSY price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ETSY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 15, 2020
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 6.0615
b = -0.0011
s = 0.2088
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2088) – 1
= 130.50%
December 15, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y403)
= Exp(a + b × X403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 582 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0615 + -0.0011 × 582 + 2 × 0.2088)
= Exp(5.8635)
= $351.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y403)
= Exp(a + b × X403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 582 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0615 + -0.0011 × 582 – 2 × 0.2088)
= Exp(5.0284)
= $152.69
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0615 + -0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.2088)
= Exp(4.5498)
= $94.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0615 + -0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.2088)
= Exp(3.7148)
= $41.05
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.03% per annum.
- ETSY price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $61.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 16, 2023
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 4.2695
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0878
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0878) – 1
= 42.10%
August 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,556 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2695 + 0.0000 × 1,556 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.4253)
= $83.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,556 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2695 + 0.0000 × 1,556 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.0740)
= $58.79
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2695 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.4219)
= $83.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2695 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.0706)
= $58.59
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.46% per annum.
- ETSY price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.