Stock Price Trends

eBay Inc (EBAY)

eBay Inc. is an American multinational e-commerce corporation based in San Jose, California, that facilitates consumer-to-consumer and business-to-consumer sales through its website.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.71% per annum.
  • EBAY price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $66.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.61 (0.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.10% per annum.
  • EBAY price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EBAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 22, 2023
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 2.2562

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0517

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0517) – 1
= 22.97%

September 22, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y856)
= Exp(a + b × X856 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2562 + 0.0011 × 1,241 + 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(3.7542)
= $42.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y856)
= Exp(a + b × X856 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2562 + 0.0011 × 1,241 – 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(3.5474)
= $34.72

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2562 + 0.0011 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(4.3812)
= $79.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2562 + 0.0011 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(4.1745)
= $65.00

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.71% per annum.
  • EBAY price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $66.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.61 (0.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 11, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 3.6746

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0347

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.10%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0347) – 1
= 14.88%

September 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6746 + 0.0003 × 1,596 + 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(4.2042)
= $66.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6746 + 0.0003 × 1,596 – 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(4.0655)
= $58.29

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6746 + 0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(4.2702)
= $71.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6746 + 0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(4.1315)
= $62.27

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.10% per annum.
  • EBAY price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.