eBay Inc (EBAY)
eBay Inc. is an American multinational e-commerce corporation based in San Jose, California, that facilitates consumer-to-consumer and business-to-consumer sales through its website.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.74% per annum.
- EBAY price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $51.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.47 (9.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.70% per annum.
- EBAY price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EBAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 25, 2021
End date: February 21, 2024
a = 4.4540
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1210
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1210) – 1
= 62.27%
January 25, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4540 + -0.0005 × 623 + 2 × 0.1210)
= Exp(4.4037)
= $81.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4540 + -0.0005 × 623 – 2 × 0.1210)
= Exp(3.9196)
= $50.38
February 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4540 + -0.0005 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.1210)
= Exp(3.8773)
= $48.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4540 + -0.0005 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.1210)
= Exp(3.3932)
= $29.76
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.74% per annum.
- EBAY price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $51.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.47 (9.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 11, 2022
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 3.5865
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0765
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0765) – 1
= 35.81%
May 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y756)
= Exp(a + b × X756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,094 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5865 + 0.0001 × 1,094 + 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(3.8772)
= $48.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y756)
= Exp(a + b × X756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,094 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5865 + 0.0001 × 1,094 – 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(3.5711)
= $35.55
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5865 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(3.9690)
= $52.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5865 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(3.6629)
= $38.97
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.70% per annum.
- EBAY price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.