Stock Price Trends

eBay Inc (EBAY)

eBay Inc. is an American multinational e-commerce corporation based in San Jose, California, that facilitates consumer-to-consumer and business-to-consumer sales through its website.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.96% per annum.
  • EBAY price at the close of July 1, 2025 was $76.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.72% per annum.
  • EBAY price at the close of July 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EBAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 22, 2023
End date: July 1, 2025

a = 2.4185

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0545

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 46.96%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0545) – 1
= 24.37%

September 22, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y811)
= Exp(a + b × X811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,177 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4185 + 0.0011 × 1,177 + 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(3.7691)
= $43.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y811)
= Exp(a + b × X811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,177 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4185 + 0.0011 × 1,177 – 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(3.5510)
= $34.85

July 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4185 + 0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(4.4526)
= $85.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4185 + 0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(4.2345)
= $69.03

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.96% per annum.
  • EBAY price at the close of July 1, 2025 was $76.10 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: July 1, 2025

a = 3.1019

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0432

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.72%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0432) – 1
= 18.88%

August 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,511 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1019 + 0.0006 × 1,511 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(4.1687)
= $64.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,511 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1019 + 0.0006 × 1,511 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.9957)
= $54.36

July 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1019 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(4.3724)
= $79.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1019 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(4.1994)
= $66.65

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.72% per annum.
  • EBAY price at the close of July 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.