Skyworks Solutions Inc (SWKS)
Skyworks Solutions, Inc. is an American semiconductor company headquartered in Irvine, California, United States. Skyworks manufactures semiconductors for use in Radio Frequency (RF) and mobile communications systems.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.80% per annum.
- SWKS price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $92.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $28.86 (45.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.17% per annum.
- SWKS price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SWKS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 22, 2020
End date: January 19, 2023
a = 5.9204
b = -0.0011
s = 0.1111
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1111) – 1
= 55.96%
December 22, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y411)
= Exp(a + b × X411 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 594 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9204 + -0.0011 × 594 + 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(5.4957)
= $243.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y411)
= Exp(a + b × X411 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 594 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9204 + -0.0011 × 594 – 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(5.0513)
= $156.23
January 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y932)
= Exp(a + b × X932 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9204 + -0.0011 × 1,352 + 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(4.6703)
= $106.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y932)
= Exp(a + b × X932 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9204 + -0.0011 × 1,352 – 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(4.2258)
= $68.43
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.80% per annum.
- SWKS price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $92.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $28.86 (45.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: April 30, 2024
a = 4.3995
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0830
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0830) – 1
= 39.36%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y755)
= Exp(a + b × X755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3995 + 0.0001 × 1,093 + 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(4.7165)
= $111.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y755)
= Exp(a + b × X755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3995 + 0.0001 × 1,093 – 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(4.3846)
= $80.21
April 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3995 + 0.0001 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(4.8168)
= $123.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3995 + 0.0001 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(4.4849)
= $88.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.17% per annum.
- SWKS price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.