Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
Oracle is an American multinational computer technology corporation headquartered in Austin, Texas. The company was formerly headquartered in Redwood Shores, California until December 2020 when it moved its headquarters to Texas. The company sells database software and technology, cloud engineered systems, and enterprise software products, particularly its own brands of database management systems.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.61% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $117.21 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.13 (12.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.81% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ORCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: September 21, 2023
a = 2.7083
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0722
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 59.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0722) – 1
= 33.50%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y762)
= Exp(a + b × X762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7083 + 0.0013 × 1,102 + 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(4.2644)
= $71.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y762)
= Exp(a + b × X762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7083 + 0.0013 × 1,102 – 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(3.9755)
= $53.27
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,108)
= Exp(a + b × X1,108 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,606 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7083 + 0.0013 × 1,606 + 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(4.9100)
= $135.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,108)
= Exp(a + b × X1,108 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,606 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7083 + 0.0013 × 1,606 – 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(4.6211)
= $101.60
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.61% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $117.21 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.13 (12.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 25, 2023
End date: March 11, 2024
a = 4.9315
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0500
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0500) – 1
= 22.16%
May 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,487 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9315 + -0.0001 × 1,487 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(4.8309)
= $125.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,487 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9315 + -0.0001 × 1,487 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(4.6308)
= $102.59
March 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9315 + -0.0001 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(4.7916)
= $120.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9315 + -0.0001 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(4.5915)
= $98.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.81% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.