Dynatrace Holdings LLC (DT)
Dynatrace, Inc. provides a software intelligence platform for dynamic multi-cloud environments. The company is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.85% per annum.
- DT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $46.07 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.09 (18.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.82% per annum.
- DT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.65 (3.45%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2021
End date: May 3, 2023
a = 4.5041
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1676
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1676) – 1
= 95.53%
February 3, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y380)
= Exp(a + b × X380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 552 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5041 + -0.0007 × 552 + 2 × 0.1676)
= Exp(4.4666)
= $87.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y380)
= Exp(a + b × X380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 552 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5041 + -0.0007 × 552 – 2 × 0.1676)
= Exp(3.7961)
= $44.53
May 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,371 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5041 + -0.0007 × 1,371 + 2 × 0.1676)
= Exp(3.9135)
= $50.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,371 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5041 + -0.0007 × 1,371 – 2 × 0.1676)
= Exp(3.2430)
= $25.61
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.85% per annum.
- DT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $46.07 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.09 (18.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2022
End date: March 4, 2024
a = 2.9062
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0874
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 26.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0874) – 1
= 41.87%
April 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y686)
= Exp(a + b × X686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 994 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9062 + 0.0007 × 994 + 2 × 0.0874)
= Exp(3.7281)
= $41.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y686)
= Exp(a + b × X686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 994 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9062 + 0.0007 × 994 – 2 × 0.0874)
= Exp(3.3783)
= $29.32
March 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9062 + 0.0007 × 1,677 + 2 × 0.0874)
= Exp(4.1727)
= $64.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9062 + 0.0007 × 1,677 – 2 × 0.0874)
= Exp(3.8229)
= $45.74
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.82% per annum.
- DT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.65 (3.45%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.