Stock Price Trends

Dynatrace Holdings LLC (DT)

Dynatrace, Inc. provides a software intelligence platform for dynamic multi-cloud environments. The company is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.36% per annum.
  • DT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $47.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.45 (22.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.41% per annum.
  • DT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 21, 2022
End date: February 23, 2024

a = 3.0729

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0872

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0872) – 1
= 41.76%

April 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y498)
= Exp(a + b × X498 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0729 + 0.0007 × 721 + 2 × 0.0872)
= Exp(3.7251)
= $41.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y498)
= Exp(a + b × X498 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0729 + 0.0007 × 721 – 2 × 0.0872)
= Exp(3.3761)
= $29.26

February 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0729 + 0.0007 × 1,394 + 2 × 0.0872)
= Exp(4.1710)
= $64.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0729 + 0.0007 × 1,394 – 2 × 0.0872)
= Exp(3.8220)
= $45.70

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.36% per annum.
  • DT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $47.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.45 (22.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 10, 2023
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 3.8193

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0896

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0896) – 1
= 43.11%

May 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y762)
= Exp(a + b × X762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8193 + 0.0001 × 1,105 + 2 × 0.0896)
= Exp(4.0706)
= $58.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y762)
= Exp(a + b × X762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8193 + 0.0001 × 1,105 – 2 × 0.0896)
= Exp(3.7121)
= $40.94

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8193 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0896)
= Exp(4.1175)
= $61.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8193 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0896)
= Exp(3.7590)
= $42.91

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.41% per annum.
  • DT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.