ANSYS Inc (ANSS)
Ansys, Inc. is an American company based in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania. It develops and markets multiphysics engineering simulation software for product design, testing and operation and offers its products and services to customers worldwide.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.26% per annum.
- ANSS price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $326.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.50% per annum.
- ANSS price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.71 (0.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ANSS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: April 30, 2024
a = 4.8897
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0868
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0868) – 1
= 41.50%
May 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y756)
= Exp(a + b × X756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8897 + 0.0005 × 1,096 + 2 × 0.0868)
= Exp(5.6420)
= $282.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y756)
= Exp(a + b × X756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8897 + 0.0005 × 1,096 – 2 × 0.0868)
= Exp(5.2949)
= $199.32
April 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8897 + 0.0005 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0868)
= Exp(6.0233)
= $412.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8897 + 0.0005 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0868)
= Exp(5.6762)
= $291.83
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.26% per annum.
- ANSS price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $326.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 21, 2024
End date: May 6, 2024
a = 9.8094
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0132
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0132) – 1
= 5.42%
March 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8094 + -0.0022 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(5.8911)
= $361.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8094 + -0.0022 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(5.8383)
= $343.19
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8094 + -0.0022 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(5.7890)
= $326.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8094 + -0.0022 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(5.7362)
= $309.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.50% per annum.
- ANSS price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.71 (0.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.