Walmart Inc (WMT)
Walmart Inc. is an American multinational retail corporation that operates a chain of hypermarkets, discount department stores, and grocery stores from the United States, headquartered in Bentonville, Arkansas. It also owns and operates Sam's Club retail warehouses.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.91% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $59.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.68% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of April 30, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.24 (0.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 17, 2022
End date: April 30, 2024
a = 3.1322
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0358
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0358) – 1
= 15.38%
May 17, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y768)
= Exp(a + b × X768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1322 + 0.0005 × 1,112 + 2 × 0.0358)
= Exp(3.7821)
= $43.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y768)
= Exp(a + b × X768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1322 + 0.0005 × 1,112 – 2 × 0.0358)
= Exp(3.6390)
= $38.05
April 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1322 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0358)
= Exp(4.1535)
= $63.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1322 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0358)
= Exp(4.0104)
= $55.17
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.91% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $59.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 17, 2023
End date: April 30, 2024
a = 1.7287
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0224
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0224) – 1
= 9.38%
November 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,661 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7287 + 0.0013 × 1,661 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(3.9600)
= $52.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,661 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7287 + 0.0013 × 1,661 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(3.8703)
= $47.96
April 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7287 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.1772)
= $65.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7287 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.0875)
= $59.59
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.68% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of April 30, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.24 (0.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.