Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)
Costco Wholesale Corporation is a leading American multinational retail giant known for its membership-based warehouse stores, offering a wide range of products including groceries, electronics, and household goods. As of 2020, it ranked as the fifth largest retailer globally and has established itself as the top retailer of choice beef, organic foods, rotisserie chicken, and wine. With a strong focus on value and customer loyalty, Costco continues to expand its market presence, leveraging its bulk purchasing strategy to maintain competitive pricing while delivering a high-quality shopping experience. The company's robust financial health and commitment to sustainable sourcing further underscore its attractiveness to institutional investors.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.27% per annum.
- COST price at the close of January 30, 2026 was $940.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 240.65% per annum.
- COST price at the close of January 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 21, 2024
End date: January 30, 2026
a = 7.1448
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0429
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0429) – 1
= 18.71%
November 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,389 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1448 + -0.0002 × 1,389 + 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(6.9840)
= $1,079.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,389 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1448 + -0.0002 × 1,389 – 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(6.8125)
= $909.14
January 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1448 + -0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(6.9068)
= $999.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1448 + -0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(6.7353)
= $841.58
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.27% per annum.
- COST price at the close of January 30, 2026 was $940.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 15, 2025
End date: January 30, 2026
a = 0.7632
b = 0.0034
s = 0.0224
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0034) – 1
= 240.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0224) – 1
= 9.38%
December 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7632 + 0.0034 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(6.7786)
= $878.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7632 + 0.0034 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(6.6889)
= $803.47
January 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7632 + 0.0034 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(6.9330)
= $1,025.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7632 + 0.0034 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(6.8434)
= $937.68
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 240.65% per annum.
- COST price at the close of January 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.