Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)
Costco Wholesale Corporation (doing business as Costco Wholesale and also known simply as Costco) is an American multinational corporation which operates a chain of membership-only (needing a membership to shop there) big-box retail stores. As of 2020, Costco was the fifth largest retailer in the world, and the world's largest retailer of choice and prime beef, organic foods, rotisserie chicken, and wine as of 2016.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.57% per annum.
- COST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $815.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 79.70% per annum.
- COST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.33 (0.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.3764
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0450
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0450) – 1
= 19.73%
March 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y907)
= Exp(a + b × X907 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3764 + 0.0013 × 1,316 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(6.1738)
= $480.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y907)
= Exp(a + b × X907 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3764 + 0.0013 × 1,316 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(5.9937)
= $400.92
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3764 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(6.8355)
= $930.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3764 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(6.6554)
= $776.97
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.57% per annum.
- COST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $815.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.8552
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0389
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0389) – 1
= 16.86%
August 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,024)
= Exp(a + b × X1,024 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,487 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8552 + 0.0016 × 1,487 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(6.3210)
= $556.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,024)
= Exp(a + b × X1,024 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,487 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8552 + 0.0016 × 1,487 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(6.1653)
= $475.92
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8552 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(6.8654)
= $958.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8552 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(6.7096)
= $820.28
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 79.70% per annum.
- COST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.33 (0.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.