Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)
Dollar Tree is an American chain of discount variety stores that sells items for $1 or less, headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.79% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $121.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.19% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DLTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 8, 2022
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 5.4447
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0887
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0887) – 1
= 42.61%
March 8, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y714)
= Exp(a + b × X714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4447 + -0.0003 × 1,035 + 2 × 0.0887)
= Exp(5.2664)
= $193.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y714)
= Exp(a + b × X714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4447 + -0.0003 × 1,035 – 2 × 0.0887)
= Exp(4.9114)
= $135.83
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4447 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0887)
= Exp(4.9945)
= $147.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4447 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0887)
= Exp(4.6395)
= $103.50
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.79% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $121.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2023
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 3.3185
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0792
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0792) – 1
= 37.26%
September 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3185 + 0.0009 × 1,577 + 2 × 0.0792)
= Exp(4.8745)
= $130.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3185 + 0.0009 × 1,577 – 2 × 0.0792)
= Exp(4.5578)
= $95.37
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3185 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0792)
= Exp(5.0952)
= $163.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3185 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0792)
= Exp(4.7785)
= $118.92
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.19% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.