Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)
Dollar Tree is an American chain of discount variety stores that sells items for $1 or less, headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.69% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $103.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.04% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DLTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 5.4904
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0891
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0891) – 1
= 42.80%
March 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y659)
= Exp(a + b × X659 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4904 + -0.0004 × 954 + 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(5.2837)
= $197.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y659)
= Exp(a + b × X659 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4904 + -0.0004 × 954 – 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(4.9274)
= $138.02
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4904 + -0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(4.9327)
= $138.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4904 + -0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(4.5764)
= $97.16
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.69% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $103.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 7, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 8.6113
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0351
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0351) – 1
= 15.07%
February 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6113 + -0.0022 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(5.0592)
= $157.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6113 + -0.0022 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(4.9188)
= $136.84
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6113 + -0.0022 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(4.6869)
= $108.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6113 + -0.0022 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(4.5465)
= $94.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.04% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.