Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)
Dollar Tree Inc. is a prominent American discount retail chain headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia, specializing in a wide range of merchandise priced at $1 or less. With a commitment to value and accessibility, the company operates thousands of locations across the United States and Canada, catering to cost-conscious consumers seeking essential household items, seasonal products, and more. The company's strategic focus on everyday low prices, coupled with its diverse product assortment, positions it well in the competitive retail landscape, appealing to both budget shoppers and value-driven families. Dollar Tree continues to enhance its footprint through targeted expansion and by adapting to changing consumer preferences, making it a compelling investment opportunity in the retail sector.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.36% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of December 18, 2025 was $126.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3,660.86% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of December 18, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DLTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: December 18, 2025
a = 2.3830
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0974
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0974) – 1
= 47.61%
September 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,353 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3830 + 0.0013 × 1,353 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(4.3282)
= $75.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,353 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3830 + 0.0013 × 1,353 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.9388)
= $51.36
December 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3830 + 0.0013 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(4.9363)
= $139.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3830 + 0.0013 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(4.5469)
= $94.34
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.36% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of December 18, 2025 was $126.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 18, 2025
End date: December 18, 2025
a = -13.2257
b = 0.0099
s = 0.0280
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0099) – 1
= 3,660.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0280) – 1
= 11.84%
November 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.2257 + 0.0099 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.6484)
= $104.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.2257 + 0.0099 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.5365)
= $93.36
December 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.2257 + 0.0099 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.9465)
= $140.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.2257 + 0.0099 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.8346)
= $125.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3,660.86% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of December 18, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.