# Target Corporation (TGT)

Target Corporation is an American retail corporation. Their retail formats include the discount store Target, the hypermarket SuperTarget, and small-format stores previously named CityTarget and TargetExpress before being consolidated under the Target branding.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.84% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of May 24, 2024 was $145.23 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.52 (12.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 144.16% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of May 24, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $26.91 (15.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of TGT price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: April 5, 2021

End date: December 12, 2023

a = 5.9939

b = -0.0007

s = 0.1120

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1

= -23.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1120) – 1

= 56.52%

#### April 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{467})

= Exp(a + b × X_{467} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 678 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.9939 + -0.0007 × 678 + 2 × 0.1120)

= Exp(5.7120)

= $302.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{467})

= Exp(a + b × X_{467} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 678 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.9939 + -0.0007 × 678 – 2 × 0.1120)

= Exp(5.2640)

= $193.24

#### December 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,145})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,145} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,659 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.9939 + -0.0007 × 1,659 + 2 × 0.1120)

= Exp(4.9800)

= $145.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,145})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,145} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,659 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.9939 + -0.0007 × 1,659 – 2 × 0.1120)

= Exp(4.5319)

= $92.94

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.84% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of May 24, 2024 was $145.23 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.52 (12.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: September 18, 2023

End date: April 24, 2024

a = 0.7938

b = 0.0024

s = 0.0520

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1

= 144.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0520) – 1

= 23.11%

#### September 18, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,085})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,085} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,574 + 2 × s)

= Exp(0.7938 + 0.0024 × 1,574 + 2 × 0.0520)

= Exp(4.7472)

= $115.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,085})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,085} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,574 – 2 × s)

= Exp(0.7938 + 0.0024 × 1,574 – 2 × 0.0520)

= Exp(4.5393)

= $93.63

#### April 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,236})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,236} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)

= Exp(0.7938 + 0.0024 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0520)

= Exp(5.2828)

= $196.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,236})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,236} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)

= Exp(0.7938 + 0.0024 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0520)

= Exp(5.0749)

= $159.96

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 144.16% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of May 24, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $26.91 (15.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.