Stock Price Trends

Target Corporation (TGT)

Target Corporation is an American retail corporation. Their retail formats include the discount store Target, the hypermarket SuperTarget, and small-format stores previously named CityTarget and TargetExpress before being consolidated under the Target branding.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 85.51% per annum.
  • TGT price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $95.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.68 (0.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.76% per annum.
  • TGT price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TGT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 24, 2025
End date: April 23, 2025

a = 14.1365

b = -0.0053

s = 0.0308

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0053) – 1
= -85.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0308) – 1
= 13.13%

January 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1365 + -0.0053 × 1,733 + 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(5.0263)
= $152.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1365 + -0.0053 × 1,733 – 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.9029)
= $134.68

April 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1365 + -0.0053 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.5552)
= $95.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1365 + -0.0053 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.4319)
= $84.09

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 85.51% per annum.
  • TGT price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $95.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.68 (0.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 5.1027

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0241

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.76%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0241) – 1
= 10.10%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1027 + -0.0003 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(4.5887)
= $98.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1027 + -0.0003 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(4.4925)
= $89.35

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1027 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(4.5822)
= $97.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1027 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(4.4860)
= $88.76

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.76% per annum.
  • TGT price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.