Target Corporation (TGT)
Target Corporation is an American retail corporation. Their retail formats include the discount store Target, the hypermarket SuperTarget, and small-format stores previously named CityTarget and TargetExpress before being consolidated under the Target branding.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 129.21% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of March 13, 2025 was $104.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4,461.18 (97.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.60% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of March 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TGT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2021
End date: August 16, 2021
a = 4.3188
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0176
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 129.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0176) – 1
= 7.29%
April 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y264)
= Exp(a + b × X264 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 381 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3188 + 0.0023 × 381 + 2 × 0.0176)
= Exp(5.2197)
= $184.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y264)
= Exp(a + b × X264 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 381 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3188 + 0.0023 × 381 – 2 × 0.0176)
= Exp(5.1494)
= $172.33
August 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y358)
= Exp(a + b × X358 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 518 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3188 + 0.0023 × 518 + 2 × 0.0176)
= Exp(5.5311)
= $252.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y358)
= Exp(a + b × X358 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 518 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3188 + 0.0023 × 518 – 2 × 0.0176)
= Exp(5.4607)
= $235.27
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 129.21% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of March 13, 2025 was $104.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4,461.18 (97.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2021
End date: March 13, 2025
a = 5.4618
b = -0.0004
s = 0.1487
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1487) – 1
= 81.28%
April 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y264)
= Exp(a + b × X264 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 381 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4618 + -0.0004 × 381 + 2 × 0.1487)
= Exp(5.6186)
= $275.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y264)
= Exp(a + b × X264 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 381 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4618 + -0.0004 × 381 – 2 × 0.1487)
= Exp(5.0238)
= $151.98
March 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4618 + -0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1487)
= Exp(5.0864)
= $161.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4618 + -0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1487)
= Exp(4.4915)
= $89.25
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.60% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of March 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.