# Target Corporation (TGT)

Target Corporation is an American retail corporation. Their retail formats include the discount store Target, the hypermarket SuperTarget, and small-format stores previously named CityTarget and TargetExpress before being consolidated under the Target branding.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.78% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $152.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $35.28 (30.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.40% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of TGT price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: April 1, 2021

End date: December 12, 2023

a = 5.9004

b = -0.0007

s = 0.1124

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1

= -23.78%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1124) – 1

= 56.76%

#### April 1, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{388})

= Exp(a + b × X_{388} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 562 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.9004 + -0.0007 × 562 + 2 × 0.1124)

= Exp(5.7072)

= $301.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{388})

= Exp(a + b × X_{388} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 562 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.9004 + -0.0007 × 562 – 2 × 0.1124)

= Exp(5.2576)

= $192.02

#### December 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,067})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,067} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.9004 + -0.0007 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.1124)

= Exp(4.9745)

= $144.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,067})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,067} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.9004 + -0.0007 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.1124)

= Exp(4.5249)

= $92.29

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.78% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $152.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $35.28 (30.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: May 18, 2022

End date: September 16, 2024

a = 5.0127

b = 0.0000

s = 0.1166

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1

= -1.40%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1166) – 1

= 59.45%

#### May 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{673})

= Exp(a + b × X_{673} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 974 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.0127 + 0.0000 × 974 + 2 × 0.1166)

= Exp(5.2083)

= $182.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{673})

= Exp(a + b × X_{673} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 974 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.0127 + 0.0000 × 974 – 2 × 0.1166)

= Exp(4.7417)

= $114.63

#### September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.0127 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1166)

= Exp(5.1753)

= $176.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.0127 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1166)

= Exp(4.7087)

= $110.91

#### Description

- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.40% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.