Stock Price Trends

Target Corporation (TGT)

Target Corporation is an American retail corporation. Their retail formats include the discount store Target, the hypermarket SuperTarget, and small-format stores previously named CityTarget and TargetExpress before being consolidated under the Target branding.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 129.84% per annum.
  • TGT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $104.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4,701.64 (97.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.82% per annum.
  • TGT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TGT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 5, 2021
End date: August 16, 2021

a = 4.3517

b = 0.0023

s = 0.0176

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 129.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0176) – 1
= 7.29%

April 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y253)
= Exp(a + b × X253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 369 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3517 + 0.0023 × 369 + 2 × 0.0176)
= Exp(5.2282)
= $186.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y253)
= Exp(a + b × X253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 369 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3517 + 0.0023 × 369 – 2 × 0.0176)
= Exp(5.1578)
= $173.78

August 16, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y346)
= Exp(a + b × X346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 502 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3517 + 0.0023 × 502 + 2 × 0.0176)
= Exp(5.5315)
= $252.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y346)
= Exp(a + b × X346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 502 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3517 + 0.0023 × 502 – 2 × 0.0176)
= Exp(5.4611)
= $235.35

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 129.84% per annum.
  • TGT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $104.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4,701.64 (97.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 5, 2021
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 5.4619

b = -0.0004

s = 0.1485

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.82%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1485) – 1
= 81.12%

April 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y253)
= Exp(a + b × X253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 369 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4619 + -0.0004 × 369 + 2 × 0.1485)
= Exp(5.6202)
= $275.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y253)
= Exp(a + b × X253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 369 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4619 + -0.0004 × 369 – 2 × 0.1485)
= Exp(5.0262)
= $152.36

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4619 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1485)
= Exp(5.0729)
= $159.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4619 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1485)
= Exp(4.4789)
= $88.14

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.82% per annum.
  • TGT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.