Target Corporation (TGT)
Target Corporation is an American retail corporation. Their retail formats include the discount store Target, the hypermarket SuperTarget, and small-format stores previously named CityTarget and TargetExpress before being consolidated under the Target branding.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 85.51% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $95.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.68 (0.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.76% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TGT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 24, 2025
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 14.1365
b = -0.0053
s = 0.0308
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0053) – 1
= -85.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0308) – 1
= 13.13%
January 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1365 + -0.0053 × 1,733 + 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(5.0263)
= $152.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1365 + -0.0053 × 1,733 – 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.9029)
= $134.68
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1365 + -0.0053 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.5552)
= $95.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1365 + -0.0053 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.4319)
= $84.09
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 85.51% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $95.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.68 (0.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 5.1027
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0241
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0241) – 1
= 10.10%
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1027 + -0.0003 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(4.5887)
= $98.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1027 + -0.0003 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(4.4925)
= $89.35
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1027 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(4.5822)
= $97.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1027 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(4.4860)
= $88.76
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.76% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.