# Target Corporation (TGT)

Target Corporation is an American retail corporation. Their retail formats include the discount store Target, the hypermarket SuperTarget, and small-format stores previously named CityTarget and TargetExpress before being consolidated under the Target branding.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.78% per annum.
• TGT price at the close of September 16, 2024 was \$152.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by \$35.28 (30.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.40% per annum.
• TGT price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TGT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: April 1, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023

a = 5.9004

b = -0.0007

s = 0.1124

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.78%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1124) – 1
= 56.76%

#### April 1, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y388)
= Exp(a + b × X388 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9004 + -0.0007 × 562 + 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(5.7072)
= \$301.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y388)
= Exp(a + b × X388 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9004 + -0.0007 × 562 – 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(5.2576)
= \$192.02

#### December 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9004 + -0.0007 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(4.9745)
= \$144.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9004 + -0.0007 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(4.5249)
= \$92.29

#### Description

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.78% per annum.
• TGT price at the close of September 16, 2024 was \$152.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by \$35.28 (30.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: May 18, 2022
End date: September 16, 2024

a = 5.0127

b = 0.0000

s = 0.1166

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.40%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1166) – 1
= 59.45%

#### May 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y673)
= Exp(a + b × X673 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 974 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0127 + 0.0000 × 974 + 2 × 0.1166)
= Exp(5.2083)
= \$182.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y673)
= Exp(a + b × X673 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 974 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0127 + 0.0000 × 974 – 2 × 0.1166)
= Exp(4.7417)
= \$114.63

#### September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0127 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1166)
= Exp(5.1753)
= \$176.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0127 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1166)
= Exp(4.7087)
= \$110.91

#### Description

• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.40% per annum.
• TGT price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.