Target Corporation (TGT)
Target Corporation is an American retail corporation. Their retail formats include the discount store Target, the hypermarket SuperTarget, and small-format stores previously named CityTarget and TargetExpress before being consolidated under the Target branding.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.84% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $164.74 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $32.40 (24.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 153.14% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TGT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 6.0224
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1120
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1120) – 1
= 56.52%
April 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y487)
= Exp(a + b × X487 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0224 + -0.0007 × 707 + 2 × 0.1120)
= Exp(5.7189)
= $304.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y487)
= Exp(a + b × X487 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0224 + -0.0007 × 707 – 2 × 0.1120)
= Exp(5.2708)
= $194.58
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0224 + -0.0007 × 1,688 + 2 × 0.1120)
= Exp(4.9868)
= $146.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0224 + -0.0007 × 1,688 – 2 × 0.1120)
= Exp(4.5388)
= $93.58
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.84% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $164.74 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $32.40 (24.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2023
End date: April 23, 2024
a = 0.5578
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0486
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 153.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0486) – 1
= 21.48%
September 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,607 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5578 + 0.0025 × 1,607 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(4.7442)
= $114.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,607 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5578 + 0.0025 × 1,607 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(4.5496)
= $94.60
April 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5578 + 0.0025 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(5.2888)
= $198.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5578 + 0.0025 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(5.0942)
= $163.07
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 153.14% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.