Target Corporation (TGT)
Target Corporation is an American retail corporation. Their retail formats include the discount store Target, the hypermarket SuperTarget, and small-format stores previously named CityTarget and TargetExpress before being consolidated under the Target branding.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.78% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $152.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $35.28 (30.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.40% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TGT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 5.9004
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1124
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1124) – 1
= 56.76%
April 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y388)
= Exp(a + b × X388 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9004 + -0.0007 × 562 + 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(5.7072)
= $301.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y388)
= Exp(a + b × X388 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9004 + -0.0007 × 562 – 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(5.2576)
= $192.02
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9004 + -0.0007 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(4.9745)
= $144.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9004 + -0.0007 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(4.5249)
= $92.29
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.78% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $152.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $35.28 (30.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 18, 2022
End date: September 16, 2024
a = 5.0127
b = 0.0000
s = 0.1166
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1166) – 1
= 59.45%
May 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y673)
= Exp(a + b × X673 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 974 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0127 + 0.0000 × 974 + 2 × 0.1166)
= Exp(5.2083)
= $182.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y673)
= Exp(a + b × X673 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 974 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0127 + 0.0000 × 974 – 2 × 0.1166)
= Exp(4.7417)
= $114.63
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0127 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1166)
= Exp(5.1753)
= $176.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0127 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1166)
= Exp(4.7087)
= $110.91
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.40% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.