Stock Price Trends

Target Corporation (TGT)

Target Corporation is an American retail corporation. Their retail formats include the discount store Target, the hypermarket SuperTarget, and small-format stores previously named CityTarget and TargetExpress before being consolidated under the Target branding.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.84% per annum.
  • TGT price at the close of May 24, 2024 was $145.23 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.52 (12.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 144.16% per annum.
  • TGT price at the close of May 24, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $26.91 (15.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TGT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 5, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023

a = 5.9939

b = -0.0007

s = 0.1120

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1120) – 1
= 56.52%

April 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y467)
= Exp(a + b × X467 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9939 + -0.0007 × 678 + 2 × 0.1120)
= Exp(5.7120)
= $302.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y467)
= Exp(a + b × X467 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9939 + -0.0007 × 678 – 2 × 0.1120)
= Exp(5.2640)
= $193.24

December 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9939 + -0.0007 × 1,659 + 2 × 0.1120)
= Exp(4.9800)
= $145.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9939 + -0.0007 × 1,659 – 2 × 0.1120)
= Exp(4.5319)
= $92.94

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.84% per annum.
  • TGT price at the close of May 24, 2024 was $145.23 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.52 (12.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 18, 2023
End date: April 24, 2024

a = 0.7938

b = 0.0024

s = 0.0520

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 144.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0520) – 1
= 23.11%

September 18, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7938 + 0.0024 × 1,574 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.7472)
= $115.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7938 + 0.0024 × 1,574 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.5393)
= $93.63

April 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7938 + 0.0024 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(5.2828)
= $196.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7938 + 0.0024 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(5.0749)
= $159.96

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 144.16% per annum.
  • TGT price at the close of May 24, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $26.91 (15.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.