Dollar General Corporation (DG)
Dollar General Corporation is an American chain of variety stores headquartered in Goodlettsville, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.47% per annum.
- DG price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $139.19 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.63 (3.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 99.95% per annum.
- DG price at the close of April 30, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $12.86 (8.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 21, 2022
End date: February 15, 2024
a = 7.3362
b = -0.0015
s = 0.1229
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1229) – 1
= 63.49%
June 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3362 + -0.0015 × 1,147 + 2 × 0.1229)
= Exp(5.8986)
= $364.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3362 + -0.0015 × 1,147 – 2 × 0.1229)
= Exp(5.4070)
= $222.96
February 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3362 + -0.0015 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.1229)
= Exp(5.0121)
= $150.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3362 + -0.0015 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.1229)
= Exp(4.5205)
= $91.88
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.47% per annum.
- DG price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $139.19 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.63 (3.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2023
End date: April 11, 2024
a = 1.6340
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0381
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 99.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0381) – 1
= 16.46%
September 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6340 + 0.0019 × 1,597 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(4.7419)
= $114.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6340 + 0.0019 × 1,597 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(4.5895)
= $98.45
April 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6340 + 0.0019 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(5.1406)
= $170.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6340 + 0.0019 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(4.9882)
= $146.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 99.95% per annum.
- DG price at the close of April 30, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $12.86 (8.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.