Dollar General Corporation (DG)
Dollar General Corporation is a leading discount retailer in the United States, operating a robust network of over 18,000 stores throughout the country. Headquartered in Goodlettsville, Tennessee, the company offers a wide range of products including groceries, health and beauty items, and household goods, all at affordable prices. Dollar General caters primarily to rural and underserved communities, providing convenient access to essential merchandise. With a focus on value and customer service, the company continues to expand its footprint and adapt its inventory to meet the evolving needs of its customer base.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 98.52% per annum.
- DG price at the close of October 13, 2025 was $101.87 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.94 (6.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.71% per annum.
- DG price at the close of October 13, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.27 (2.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: September 8, 2025
a = 1.4061
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0725
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 98.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0725) – 1
= 33.65%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4061 + 0.0019 × 1,484 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(4.3391)
= $76.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4061 + 0.0019 × 1,484 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(4.0490)
= $57.34
September 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4061 + 0.0019 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(4.9140)
= $136.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4061 + 0.0019 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(4.6239)
= $101.89
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 98.52% per annum.
- DG price at the close of October 13, 2025 was $101.87 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.94 (6.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 7, 2025
End date: October 10, 2025
a = 9.3766
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0120
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0120) – 1
= 4.91%
August 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3766 + -0.0026 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(4.7773)
= $118.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3766 + -0.0026 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(4.7294)
= $113.22
October 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3766 + -0.0026 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(4.6090)
= $100.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3766 + -0.0026 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(4.5610)
= $95.68
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.71% per annum.
- DG price at the close of October 13, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.27 (2.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.