Dollar General Corporation (DG)
Dollar General Corporation is an American chain of variety stores headquartered in Goodlettsville, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.31% per annum.
- DG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $118.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 79.85% per annum.
- DG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $45.46 (27.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 6, 2022
End date: February 15, 2024
a = 7.1268
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1266
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1266) – 1
= 65.90%
June 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y721)
= Exp(a + b × X721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,046 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1268 + -0.0014 × 1,046 + 2 × 0.1266)
= Exp(5.9010)
= $365.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y721)
= Exp(a + b × X721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,046 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1268 + -0.0014 × 1,046 – 2 × 0.1266)
= Exp(5.3948)
= $220.25
February 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1268 + -0.0014 × 1,665 + 2 × 0.1266)
= Exp(5.0258)
= $152.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1268 + -0.0014 × 1,665 – 2 × 0.1266)
= Exp(4.5196)
= $91.80
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.31% per annum.
- DG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $118.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2023
End date: April 19, 2024
a = 2.2660
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0520
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0520) – 1
= 23.10%
September 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2660 + 0.0016 × 1,498 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.7788)
= $118.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2660 + 0.0016 × 1,498 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.5710)
= $96.64
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2660 + 0.0016 × 1,729 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(5.1503)
= $172.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2660 + 0.0016 × 1,729 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.9425)
= $140.12
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 79.85% per annum.
- DG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $45.46 (27.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.