Dollar General Corporation (DG)
Dollar General Corporation is an American chain of variety stores headquartered in Goodlettsville, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.25% per annum.
- DG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $93.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 226.20% per annum.
- DG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 21, 2022
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 6.5954
b = -0.0013
s = 0.1431
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1431) – 1
= 77.23%
June 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y539)
= Exp(a + b × X539 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5954 + -0.0013 × 782 + 2 × 0.1431)
= Exp(5.8833)
= $358.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y539)
= Exp(a + b × X539 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5954 + -0.0013 × 782 – 2 × 0.1431)
= Exp(5.3110)
= $202.55
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5954 + -0.0013 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.1431)
= Exp(4.5876)
= $98.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5954 + -0.0013 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.1431)
= Exp(4.0153)
= $55.44
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.25% per annum.
- DG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $93.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 14, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = -1.3671
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0324
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 226.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0324) – 1
= 13.85%
January 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3671 + 0.0032 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(4.2694)
= $71.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3671 + 0.0032 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(4.1396)
= $62.78
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3671 + 0.0032 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(4.6095)
= $100.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3671 + 0.0032 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(4.4798)
= $88.21
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 226.20% per annum.
- DG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.