Stock Price Trends

DocuSign Inc (DOCU)

DocuSign, Inc. provides cloud-based software in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.41% per annum.
  • DOCU price at the close of June 3, 2025 was $91.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.40% per annum.
  • DOCU price at the close of June 3, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.52 (0.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DOCU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 9, 2023
End date: June 3, 2025

a = 2.4043

b = 0.0012

s = 0.1231

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1231) – 1
= 63.59%

August 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4043 + 0.0012 × 1,161 + 2 × 0.1231)
= Exp(3.9908)
= $54.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4043 + 0.0012 × 1,161 – 2 × 0.1231)
= Exp(3.4986)
= $33.07

June 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4043 + 0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1231)
= Exp(4.7573)
= $116.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4043 + 0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1231)
= Exp(4.2651)
= $71.17

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.41% per annum.
  • DOCU price at the close of June 3, 2025 was $91.61 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 6, 2024
End date: June 3, 2025

a = 6.0497

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0663

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.40%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0663) – 1
= 30.39%

December 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0497 + -0.0009 × 1,646 + 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(4.6757)
= $107.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0497 + -0.0009 × 1,646 – 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(4.4104)
= $82.30

June 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0497 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(4.5119)
= $91.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0497 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(4.2465)
= $69.86

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.40% per annum.
  • DOCU price at the close of June 3, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.52 (0.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.