Okta Inc (OKTA)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.07% per annum.
- OKTA price at the close of February 25, 2026 was $73.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.29 (6.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.23% per annum.
- OKTA price at the close of February 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OKTA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2022
End date: February 13, 2026
a = 4.0163
b = 0.0003
s = 0.1349
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1349) – 1
= 71.52%
September 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y382)
= Exp(a + b × X382 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 552 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0163 + 0.0003 × 552 + 2 × 0.1349)
= Exp(4.4717)
= $87.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y382)
= Exp(a + b × X382 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 552 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0163 + 0.0003 × 552 – 2 × 0.1349)
= Exp(3.9322)
= $51.02
February 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0163 + 0.0003 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.1349)
= Exp(4.8960)
= $133.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0163 + 0.0003 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.1349)
= Exp(4.3565)
= $77.98
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.07% per annum.
- OKTA price at the close of February 25, 2026 was $73.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.29 (6.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2025
End date: February 25, 2026
a = 5.9860
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0676
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0676) – 1
= 31.05%
March 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,008)
= Exp(a + b × X1,008 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,467 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9860 + -0.0009 × 1,467 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(4.8436)
= $126.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,008)
= Exp(a + b × X1,008 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,467 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9860 + -0.0009 × 1,467 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(4.5732)
= $96.85
February 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9860 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(4.5318)
= $92.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9860 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(4.2614)
= $70.91
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.23% per annum.
- OKTA price at the close of February 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.