Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)
Fair Isaac Corporation develops data management, software and analytics products and services that enable companies to automate, improve and connect decisions in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.38% per annum.
- FICO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $1,605.94 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 374.62% per annum.
- FICO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FICO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.1923
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0746
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 88.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0746) – 1
= 34.79%
April 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y682)
= Exp(a + b × X682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 987 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1923 + 0.0017 × 987 + 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(6.0540)
= $425.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y682)
= Exp(a + b × X682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 987 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1923 + 0.0017 × 987 – 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(5.7555)
= $315.91
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1923 + 0.0017 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(7.5062)
= $1,819.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1923 + 0.0017 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(7.2077)
= $1,349.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.38% per annum.
- FICO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $1,605.94 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 30, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = -0.3726
b = 0.0043
s = 0.0189
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0043) – 1
= 374.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0189) – 1
= 7.85%
May 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3726 + 0.0043 × 1,767 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(7.2044)
= $1,345.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3726 + 0.0043 × 1,767 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(7.1288)
= $1,247.43
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3726 + 0.0043 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(7.4476)
= $1,715.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3726 + 0.0043 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(7.3720)
= $1,590.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 374.62% per annum.
- FICO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.