Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)
Fair Isaac Corporation develops data management, software and analytics products and services that enable companies to automate, improve and connect decisions in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.40% per annum.
- FICO price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $1,251.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.14% per annum.
- FICO price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $38.66 (3.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FICO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 18, 2022
End date: April 9, 2024
a = 3.9548
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0716
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 93.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0716) – 1
= 33.14%
April 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y741)
= Exp(a + b × X741 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9548 + 0.0018 × 1,075 + 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(6.0405)
= $420.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y741)
= Exp(a + b × X741 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9548 + 0.0018 × 1,075 – 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(5.7543)
= $315.54
April 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9548 + 0.0018 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(7.3452)
= $1,548.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9548 + 0.0018 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(7.0590)
= $1,163.27
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.40% per annum.
- FICO price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $1,251.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 6, 2024
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 9.7852
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0262
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0262) – 1
= 11.03%
February 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7852 + -0.0015 × 1,734 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(7.2386)
= $1,392.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7852 + -0.0015 × 1,734 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(7.1339)
= $1,253.74
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7852 + -0.0015 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(7.1082)
= $1,221.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7852 + -0.0015 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(7.0035)
= $1,100.47
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.14% per annum.
- FICO price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $38.66 (3.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.