Stock Price Trends

Dropbox Inc (DBX)

Dropbox, Inc. provides a worldwide collaboration platform. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 54.95% per annum.
  • DBX price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $28.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.45 (13.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.86% per annum.
  • DBX price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DBX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 2, 2024
End date: February 20, 2025

a = 1.4073

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0568

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 54.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0568) – 1
= 25.52%

April 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y940)
= Exp(a + b × X940 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4073 + 0.0012 × 1,365 + 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(3.1588)
= $23.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y940)
= Exp(a + b × X940 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4073 + 0.0012 × 1,365 – 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(2.9315)
= $18.76

February 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4073 + 0.0012 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(3.5476)
= $34.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4073 + 0.0012 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(3.3203)
= $27.67

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 54.95% per annum.
  • DBX price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $28.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.45 (13.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: July 3, 2025

a = 3.6362

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0655

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0655) – 1
= 29.97%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6362 + -0.0002 × 1,583 + 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.5055)
= $33.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6362 + -0.0002 × 1,583 – 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.2433)
= $25.62

July 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6362 + -0.0002 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.4660)
= $32.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6362 + -0.0002 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.2038)
= $24.63

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.86% per annum.
  • DBX price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.