Dropbox Inc (DBX)
Dropbox, Inc. provides a worldwide collaboration platform. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 61.81% per annum.
- DBX price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $23.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.48% per annum.
- DBX price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DBX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 15, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 7.9097
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0822
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0822) – 1
= 38.93%
December 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9097 + -0.0026 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(3.6438)
= $38.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9097 + -0.0026 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(3.3150)
= $27.52
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9097 + -0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(3.2588)
= $26.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9097 + -0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(2.9300)
= $18.73
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 61.81% per annum.
- DBX price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $23.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 20, 2024
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 3.8752
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0181
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0181) – 1
= 7.52%
February 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8752 + -0.0004 × 1,747 + 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.2185)
= $24.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8752 + -0.0004 × 1,747 – 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.1460)
= $23.24
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8752 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.1872)
= $24.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8752 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.1146)
= $22.53
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.48% per annum.
- DBX price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.