Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)
Tyler Technologies, Inc., based in Plano, Texas, is the largest provider of software to the United States public sector.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.70% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $481.02 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $54.97 (12.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.84% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TYL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 12, 2020
End date: November 1, 2023
a = 6.2664
b = -0.0002
s = 0.1217
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1217) – 1
= 62.71%
October 12, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y360)
= Exp(a + b × X360 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 522 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2664 + -0.0002 × 522 + 2 × 0.1217)
= Exp(6.3797)
= $589.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y360)
= Exp(a + b × X360 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 522 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2664 + -0.0002 × 522 – 2 × 0.1217)
= Exp(5.8929)
= $362.45
November 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2664 + -0.0002 × 1,637 + 2 × 0.1217)
= Exp(6.1017)
= $446.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2664 + -0.0002 × 1,637 – 2 × 0.1217)
= Exp(5.6149)
= $274.49
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.70% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $481.02 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $54.97 (12.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 11, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 4.9991
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0515
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0515) – 1
= 22.89%
October 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y863)
= Exp(a + b × X863 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9991 + 0.0006 × 1,251 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(5.8625)
= $351.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y863)
= Exp(a + b × X863 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9991 + 0.0006 × 1,251 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(5.6564)
= $286.11
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9991 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(6.2120)
= $498.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9991 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(6.0059)
= $405.80
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.84% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.