Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)
Tyler Technologies, Inc., based in Plano, Texas, is the largest provider of software to the United States public sector.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.11% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $590.65 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $48.65 (8.98%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 111.04% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $12.11 (2.09%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TYL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 11, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.9508
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0532
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0532) – 1
= 23.72%
October 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y808)
= Exp(a + b × X808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9508 + 0.0007 × 1,170 + 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(5.8513)
= $347.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y808)
= Exp(a + b × X808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9508 + 0.0007 × 1,170 – 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(5.6385)
= $281.05
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9508 + 0.0007 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(6.2946)
= $541.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9508 + 0.0007 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(6.0818)
= $437.80
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.11% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $590.65 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $48.65 (8.98%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.5509
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0387
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 111.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0387) – 1
= 16.73%
March 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5509 + 0.0020 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(6.0843)
= $438.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5509 + 0.0020 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(5.9296)
= $376.01
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5509 + 0.0020 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(6.3605)
= $578.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5509 + 0.0020 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(6.2058)
= $495.64
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 111.04% per annum.
- TYL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $12.11 (2.09%).