Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS)
Cadence Design Systems, Inc., headquartered in San Jose, California, is an American multinational computational software company. The company produces software, hardware and silicon structures for designing integrated circuits, systems on chips (SoCs) and printed circuit boards.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.22% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $258.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.66% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $29.78 (10.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CDNS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 20, 2020
End date: May 24, 2023
a = 4.5526
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0955
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0955) – 1
= 46.50%
July 20, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 357 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5526 + 0.0005 × 357 + 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(4.9318)
= $138.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 357 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5526 + 0.0005 × 357 – 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(4.5499)
= $94.63
May 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5526 + 0.0005 × 1,395 + 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(5.4790)
= $239.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5526 + 0.0005 × 1,395 – 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(5.0972)
= $163.56
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.22% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $258.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2022
End date: July 16, 2024
a = 3.9536
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0670
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0670) – 1
= 30.71%
April 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y682)
= Exp(a + b × X682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 987 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9536 + 0.0010 × 987 + 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(5.0860)
= $161.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y682)
= Exp(a + b × X682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 987 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9536 + 0.0010 × 987 – 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(4.8182)
= $123.74
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9536 + 0.0010 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(5.9227)
= $373.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9536 + 0.0010 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(5.6548)
= $285.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.66% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $29.78 (10.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.