Agilysys Inc (AGYS)
Agilysys, Inc. is a developer and marketer of hardware and software products and services for the hospitality industry in North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and India. The company is headquartered in Alpharetta, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.78% per annum.
- AGYS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $108.11 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $48.48 (81.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.27% per annum.
- AGYS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AGYS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 15, 2022
End date: October 23, 2023
a = 5.3487
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0488
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0488) – 1
= 21.58%
December 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y855)
= Exp(a + b × X855 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3487 + -0.0007 × 1,238 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.5255)
= $92.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y855)
= Exp(a + b × X855 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3487 + -0.0007 × 1,238 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.3301)
= $75.95
October 23, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,550 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3487 + -0.0007 × 1,550 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.2934)
= $73.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,550 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3487 + -0.0007 × 1,550 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.0980)
= $60.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.78% per annum.
- AGYS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $108.11 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $48.48 (81.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 17, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.9544
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0793
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0793) – 1
= 37.33%
May 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,391 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9544 + 0.0009 × 1,391 + 2 × 0.0793)
= Exp(4.3479)
= $77.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,391 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9544 + 0.0009 × 1,391 – 2 × 0.0793)
= Exp(4.0308)
= $56.30
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9544 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0793)
= Exp(4.7341)
= $113.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9544 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0793)
= Exp(4.4169)
= $82.84
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.27% per annum.
- AGYS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.