Agilysys Inc (AGYS)
Agilysys, Inc. is a developer and marketer of hardware and software products and services for the hospitality industry in North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and India. The company is headquartered in Alpharetta, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.78% per annum.
- AGYS price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $81.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $17.89 (28.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.22% per annum.
- AGYS price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AGYS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 15, 2022
End date: October 23, 2023
a = 5.4059
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0488
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0488) – 1
= 21.58%
December 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,315 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4059 + -0.0007 × 1,315 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.5255)
= $92.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,315 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4059 + -0.0007 × 1,315 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.3301)
= $75.95
October 23, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4059 + -0.0007 × 1,627 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.2934)
= $73.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4059 + -0.0007 × 1,627 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.0980)
= $60.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.78% per annum.
- AGYS price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $81.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $17.89 (28.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 17, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 3.2861
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0735
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0735) – 1
= 34.19%
May 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,468 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2861 + 0.0006 × 1,468 + 2 × 0.0735)
= Exp(4.3695)
= $79.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,468 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2861 + 0.0006 × 1,468 – 2 × 0.0735)
= Exp(4.0754)
= $58.88
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2861 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0735)
= Exp(4.5979)
= $99.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2861 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0735)
= Exp(4.3038)
= $73.98
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.22% per annum.
- AGYS price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.