Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)
Adobe Inc. is an American multinational computer software company. Incorporated in Delaware and headquartered in San Jose, California, it has historically specialized in software for the creation and publication of a wide range of content, including graphics, photography, illustration, animation, multimedia, motion pictures and print. The company has expanded into digital marketing management software. Adobe has millions of users worldwide. Flagship products include: Photoshop image editing software, Adobe Illustrator vector-based illustration software, Adobe Acrobat Reader and the Portable Document Format (PDF), plus a host of tools primarily for audio-visual content creation, editing and publishing.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 81.11% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $521.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $285.79 (35.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.29% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADBE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: February 14, 2024
a = 3.8688
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0732
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 81.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0732) – 1
= 34.00%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y753)
= Exp(a + b × X753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,092 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8688 + 0.0016 × 1,092 + 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(5.7920)
= $327.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y753)
= Exp(a + b × X753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,092 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8688 + 0.0016 × 1,092 – 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(5.4993)
= $244.53
February 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8688 + 0.0016 × 1,611 + 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(6.6365)
= $762.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8688 + 0.0016 × 1,611 – 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(6.3438)
= $568.97
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 81.11% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $521.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $285.79 (35.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2023
End date: September 16, 2024
a = 6.3001
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0856
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0856) – 1
= 40.82%
June 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y941)
= Exp(a + b × X941 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3001 + 0.0000 × 1,365 + 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(6.4603)
= $639.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y941)
= Exp(a + b × X941 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3001 + 0.0000 × 1,365 – 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(6.1180)
= $453.94
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3001 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(6.4565)
= $636.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3001 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(6.1142)
= $452.25
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.29% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.