Autodesk Inc (ADSK)
Autodesk, Inc. is an American multinational software corporation that makes software products and services for the architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, media, education, and entertainment industries. Autodesk is headquartered in San Rafael, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.55% per annum.
- ADSK price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $217.93 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.50 (0.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.03% per annum.
- ADSK price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADSK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 15, 2020
End date: November 13, 2023
a = 5.9302
b = -0.0004
s = 0.1187
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1187) – 1
= 60.75%
October 15, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y371)
= Exp(a + b × X371 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 535 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9302 + -0.0004 × 535 + 2 × 0.1187)
= Exp(5.9371)
= $378.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y371)
= Exp(a + b × X371 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 535 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9302 + -0.0004 × 535 – 2 × 0.1187)
= Exp(5.4624)
= $235.66
November 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9302 + -0.0004 × 1,659 + 2 × 0.1187)
= Exp(5.4529)
= $233.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9302 + -0.0004 × 1,659 – 2 × 0.1187)
= Exp(4.9782)
= $145.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.55% per annum.
- ADSK price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $217.93 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.50 (0.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 6, 2022
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 4.8947
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0714
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0714) – 1
= 33.04%
April 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y742)
= Exp(a + b × X742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8947 + 0.0003 × 1,073 + 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(5.3713)
= $215.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y742)
= Exp(a + b × X742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8947 + 0.0003 × 1,073 – 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(5.0858)
= $161.72
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8947 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(5.6050)
= $271.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8947 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(5.3195)
= $204.28
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.03% per annum.
- ADSK price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.