Guidewire Software Inc (GWRE)
Guidewire Software, Inc. is a leading provider of advanced software solutions specifically designed for property and casualty (P&C) insurers globally. Headquartered in San Mateo, California, Guidewire offers a comprehensive suite of products that empower insurers to optimize their operations, enhance customer engagement, and drive innovation in an increasingly competitive market. With a strong focus on cloud-based technology and data-driven insights, the company is well-positioned to address evolving industry challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the insurance landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.02% per annum.
- GWRE price at the close of January 28, 2026 was $162.69 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $93.69 (36.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.87% per annum.
- GWRE price at the close of January 28, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GWRE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: October 30, 2025
a = 3.2042
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0810
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 65.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0810) – 1
= 38.25%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y408)
= Exp(a + b × X408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 592 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2042 + 0.0014 × 592 + 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(4.1785)
= $65.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y408)
= Exp(a + b × X408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 592 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2042 + 0.0014 × 592 – 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(3.8546)
= $47.21
October 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2042 + 0.0014 × 1,735 + 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(5.7471)
= $313.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2042 + 0.0014 × 1,735 – 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(5.4232)
= $226.59
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.02% per annum.
- GWRE price at the close of January 28, 2026 was $162.69 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $93.69 (36.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 5, 2025
End date: January 28, 2026
a = 10.5283
b = -0.0029
s = 0.0527
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -65.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0527) – 1
= 23.45%
September 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5283 + -0.0029 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(5.6852)
= $294.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5283 + -0.0029 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(5.4745)
= $238.53
January 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5283 + -0.0029 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(5.2581)
= $192.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5283 + -0.0029 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(5.0474)
= $155.61
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.87% per annum.
- GWRE price at the close of January 28, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.