SPS Commerce Inc (SPSC)
SPS Commerce, Inc. provides cloud-based supply chain management solutions globally. The company is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.80% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $188.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.41% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SPSC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 3, 2020
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 4.3184
b = 0.0005
s = 0.1180
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1180) – 1
= 60.32%
November 3, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y376)
= Exp(a + b × X376 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 544 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3184 + 0.0005 × 544 + 2 × 0.1180)
= Exp(4.8236)
= $124.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y376)
= Exp(a + b × X376 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 544 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3184 + 0.0005 × 544 – 2 × 0.1180)
= Exp(4.3516)
= $77.60
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3184 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1180)
= Exp(5.4580)
= $234.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3184 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1180)
= Exp(4.9860)
= $146.35
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.80% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $188.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 3.8301
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0725
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0725) – 1
= 33.63%
May 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y755)
= Exp(a + b × X755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8301 + 0.0008 × 1,093 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(4.8605)
= $129.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y755)
= Exp(a + b × X755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8301 + 0.0008 × 1,093 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(4.5706)
= $96.60
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8301 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(5.4543)
= $233.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8301 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(5.1644)
= $174.93
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.41% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.