SPS Commerce Inc (SPSC)
SPS Commerce, Inc. provides cloud-based supply chain management solutions globally. The company is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.65% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $139.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.88% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SPSC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 12, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 7.8768
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0926
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0926) – 1
= 44.86%
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,535 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8768 + -0.0016 × 1,535 + 2 × 0.0926)
= Exp(5.5746)
= $263.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,535 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8768 + -0.0016 × 1,535 – 2 × 0.0926)
= Exp(5.2041)
= $182.01
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8768 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0926)
= Exp(5.1047)
= $164.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8768 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0926)
= Exp(4.7341)
= $113.76
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.65% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $139.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 29, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 11.4977
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0780
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -73.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0780) – 1
= 36.60%
November 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4977 + -0.0037 × 1,675 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(5.4935)
= $243.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4977 + -0.0037 × 1,675 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(5.1817)
= $177.98
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4977 + -0.0037 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.9419)
= $140.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4977 + -0.0037 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.6300)
= $102.52
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.88% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.