SPS Commerce Inc (SPSC)
SPS Commerce, Inc. provides cloud-based supply chain management solutions globally. The company is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.97% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $209.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.79% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SPSC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2020
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.3551
b = 0.0005
s = 0.1150
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1150) – 1
= 58.39%
November 4, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 464 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3551 + 0.0005 × 464 + 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(4.8165)
= $123.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 464 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3551 + 0.0005 × 464 – 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(4.3566)
= $77.99
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3551 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(5.4949)
= $243.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3551 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(5.0350)
= $153.70
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.97% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $209.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.9641
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0728
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0728) – 1
= 33.82%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y699)
= Exp(a + b × X699 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9641 + 0.0008 × 1,011 + 2 × 0.0728)
= Exp(4.8745)
= $130.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y699)
= Exp(a + b × X699 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9641 + 0.0008 × 1,011 – 2 × 0.0728)
= Exp(4.5831)
= $97.82
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9641 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0728)
= Exp(5.4894)
= $242.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9641 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0728)
= Exp(5.1980)
= $180.92
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.79% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.