Stock Price Trends

SPS Commerce Inc (SPSC)

SPS Commerce, Inc. is a leading provider of cloud-based supply chain management solutions, empowering retailers, suppliers, and logistics partners to optimize their operations and enhance collaboration. Headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota, the company offers a comprehensive suite of tools designed to streamline procurement, order fulfillment, and inventory management processes across various industries. With a robust technology platform and a strong emphasis on data analytics, SPS Commerce supports businesses in achieving improved efficiency and visibility within their supply chains.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.19% per annum.
  • SPSC price at the close of December 12, 2025 was $86.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 248.13% per annum.
  • SPSC price at the close of December 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SPSC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 12, 2024
End date: December 12, 2025

a = 7.6305

b = -0.0017

s = 0.0991

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0991) – 1
= 48.63%

July 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y898)
= Exp(a + b × X898 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6305 + -0.0017 × 1,306 + 2 × 0.0991)
= Exp(5.6112)
= $273.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y898)
= Exp(a + b × X898 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6305 + -0.0017 × 1,306 – 2 × 0.0991)
= Exp(5.2149)
= $183.99

December 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6305 + -0.0017 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0991)
= Exp(4.7317)
= $113.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6305 + -0.0017 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0991)
= Exp(4.3354)
= $76.35

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.19% per annum.
  • SPSC price at the close of December 12, 2025 was $86.23 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 17, 2025
End date: December 12, 2025

a = -1.7790

b = 0.0034

s = 0.0129

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0034) – 1
= 248.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0129) – 1
= 5.28%

November 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7790 + 0.0034 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(4.3949)
= $81.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7790 + 0.0034 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(4.3435)
= $76.97

December 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7790 + 0.0034 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(4.4803)
= $88.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7790 + 0.0034 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(4.4289)
= $83.84

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 248.13% per annum.
  • SPSC price at the close of December 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.