Salesforce.com Inc (CRM)
Salesforce.com, Inc. is an American cloud-based software company headquartered in San Francisco, California. It provides customer relationship management (CRM) service and also provides a complementary suite of enterprise applications focused on customer service, marketing automation, analytics, and application development.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.42% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $262.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.74 (5.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 47.03% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 29, 2022
End date: May 24, 2024
a = 3.5279
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0831
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0831) – 1
= 39.45%
August 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y778)
= Exp(a + b × X778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5279 + 0.0012 × 1,127 + 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(5.0953)
= $163.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y778)
= Exp(a + b × X778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5279 + 0.0012 × 1,127 – 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(4.7627)
= $117.07
May 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5279 + 0.0012 × 1,761 + 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(5.8835)
= $359.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5279 + 0.0012 × 1,761 – 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(5.5509)
= $257.48
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.42% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $262.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.74 (5.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 8.6463
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0505
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -47.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0505) – 1
= 22.40%
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,669 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6463 + -0.0017 × 1,669 + 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.8415)
= $344.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,669 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6463 + -0.0017 × 1,669 – 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.6393)
= $281.27
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6463 + -0.0017 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.5751)
= $263.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6463 + -0.0017 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.3729)
= $215.50
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 47.03% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.