Blackbaud Inc (BLKB)
Blackbaud, Inc. provides cloud software solutions to nonprofits, foundations, businesses, educational institutions, healthcare organizations, and other social concern entities in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Charleston, South Carolina.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.70% per annum.
- BLKB price at the close of August 22, 2025 was $66.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.58 (9.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.01% per annum.
- BLKB price at the close of August 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BLKB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: June 20, 2025
a = 6.4494
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0525
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0525) – 1
= 23.38%
August 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,006)
= Exp(a + b × X1,006 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,460 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4494 + -0.0013 × 1,460 + 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(4.5970)
= $99.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,006)
= Exp(a + b × X1,006 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,460 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4494 + -0.0013 × 1,460 – 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(4.3869)
= $80.39
June 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4494 + -0.0013 × 1,761 + 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(4.1934)
= $66.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4494 + -0.0013 × 1,761 – 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(3.9833)
= $53.70
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.70% per annum.
- BLKB price at the close of August 22, 2025 was $66.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.58 (9.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2025
End date: August 22, 2025
a = 3.6918
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0247
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0247) – 1
= 10.38%
March 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6918 + 0.0003 × 1,662 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.1756)
= $65.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6918 + 0.0003 × 1,662 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.0769)
= $58.96
August 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6918 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.2179)
= $67.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6918 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.1192)
= $61.51
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.01% per annum.
- BLKB price at the close of August 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.