Blackbaud Inc (BLKB)
Blackbaud, Inc. provides cloud software solutions to nonprofits, foundations, businesses, educational institutions, healthcare organizations, and other social concern entities in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Charleston, South Carolina.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.55% per annum.
- BLKB price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $77.66 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.37% per annum.
- BLKB price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BLKB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: February 12, 2024
a = 3.0382
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0740
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0740) – 1
= 34.44%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y779)
= Exp(a + b × X779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,130 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0382 + 0.0008 × 1,130 + 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(4.0820)
= $59.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y779)
= Exp(a + b × X779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,130 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0382 + 0.0008 × 1,130 – 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(3.7860)
= $44.08
February 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,739 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0382 + 0.0008 × 1,739 + 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(4.5647)
= $96.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,739 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0382 + 0.0008 × 1,739 – 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(4.2688)
= $71.43
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.55% per annum.
- BLKB price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $77.66 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 29, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 3.8653
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0620
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0620) – 1
= 28.12%
March 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,419 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8653 + 0.0003 × 1,419 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(4.3727)
= $79.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,419 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8653 + 0.0003 × 1,419 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(4.1249)
= $61.86
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8653 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(4.4827)
= $88.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8653 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(4.2349)
= $69.05
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.37% per annum.
- BLKB price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.