Stock Price Trends

CarGurus (CARG)

CarGurus, Inc. is a leading online automotive marketplace headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, specializing in connecting buyers and sellers of new and used cars across the United States and internationally. Utilizing a technology-driven approach, the platform delivers transparent pricing, user-friendly tools, and verified dealer ratings, enhancing the car-buying experience. With a focus on innovation and data analytics, CarGurus aims to empower consumers and streamline transactions, positioning itself as a trusted resource in the automotive industry. The company's expansive network and robust marketing strategies have solidified its presence in a competitive market, making it an attractive option for investors looking to capitalize on the evolving automotive landscape.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.03% per annum.
  • CARG price at the close of February 18, 2026 was $28.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.26 (15.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.34% per annum.
  • CARG price at the close of February 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CARG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: January 13, 2026

a = 2.1995

b = 0.0008

s = 0.1124

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 36.03%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1124) – 1
= 56.78%

September 13, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y394)
= Exp(a + b × X394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1995 + 0.0008 × 571 + 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(2.9057)
= $18.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y394)
= Exp(a + b × X394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1995 + 0.0008 × 571 – 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(2.4560)
= $11.66

January 13, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1995 + 0.0008 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(3.9326)
= $51.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1995 + 0.0008 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(3.4829)
= $32.55

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.03% per annum.
  • CARG price at the close of February 18, 2026 was $28.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.26 (15.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 8, 2024
End date: February 18, 2026

a = 3.4614

b = 0.0000

s = 0.1038

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.34%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1038) – 1
= 51.49%

October 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y914)
= Exp(a + b × X914 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4614 + 0.0000 × 1,327 + 2 × 0.1038)
= Exp(3.7174)
= $41.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y914)
= Exp(a + b × X914 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4614 + 0.0000 × 1,327 – 2 × 0.1038)
= Exp(3.3021)
= $27.17

February 18, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4614 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1038)
= Exp(3.7355)
= $41.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4614 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1038)
= Exp(3.3202)
= $27.67

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.34% per annum.
  • CARG price at the close of February 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.