CarGurus (CARG)
CarGurus, Inc. operates an online automotive marketplace that connects buyers and sellers of new and used cars in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.95% per annum.
- CARG price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $22.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.32% per annum.
- CARG price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CARG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2022
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 1.5165
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0975
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0975) – 1
= 47.69%
September 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y848)
= Exp(a + b × X848 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5165 + 0.0009 × 1,230 + 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(2.8442)
= $17.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y848)
= Exp(a + b × X848 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5165 + 0.0009 × 1,230 – 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(2.4542)
= $11.64
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5165 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(3.3931)
= $29.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5165 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(3.0031)
= $20.15
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.95% per annum.
- CARG price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $22.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 3.7724
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0237
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0237) – 1
= 9.96%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7724 + -0.0004 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(3.2142)
= $24.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7724 + -0.0004 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(3.1193)
= $22.63
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7724 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(3.1620)
= $23.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7724 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(3.0670)
= $21.48
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.32% per annum.
- CARG price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.