Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW)
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. provides cybersecurity platform solutions globally. The company is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 84.05% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $303.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.98 (3.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.53% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $12.49 (4.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PANW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 11, 2022
End date: February 20, 2024
a = 2.8659
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0857
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 84.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0857) – 1
= 40.90%
October 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y863)
= Exp(a + b × X863 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8659 + 0.0017 × 1,251 + 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(5.1281)
= $168.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y863)
= Exp(a + b × X863 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8659 + 0.0017 × 1,251 – 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(4.7852)
= $119.72
February 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8659 + 0.0017 × 1,748 + 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(5.9587)
= $387.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8659 + 0.0017 × 1,748 – 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(5.6158)
= $274.74
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 84.05% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $303.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.98 (3.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 10, 2024
End date: April 22, 2024
a = 10.7204
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0682
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0682) – 1
= 31.39%
January 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7204 + -0.0028 × 1,707 + 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(6.0096)
= $407.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7204 + -0.0028 × 1,707 – 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(5.7366)
= $310.01
April 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7204 + -0.0028 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(5.7171)
= $304.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7204 + -0.0028 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(5.4441)
= $231.39
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.53% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $12.49 (4.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.