ServiceNow Inc (NOW)
ServiceNow is an American software company based in Santa Clara, California that develops a cloud computing platform to help companies manage digital workflows for enterprise operations.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.74% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $723.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.20% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2022
End date: April 17, 2024
a = 4.1423
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0583
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 66.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0583) – 1
= 26.24%
September 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y858)
= Exp(a + b × X858 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1423 + 0.0014 × 1,242 + 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(5.9984)
= $402.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y858)
= Exp(a + b × X858 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1423 + 0.0014 × 1,242 – 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(5.7654)
= $319.07
April 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1423 + 0.0014 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(6.8010)
= $898.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1423 + 0.0014 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(6.5680)
= $711.93
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.74% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $723.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 24, 2024
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 7.6182
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0214
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0214) – 1
= 8.96%
January 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6182 + -0.0006 × 1,731 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(6.7083)
= $819.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6182 + -0.0006 × 1,731 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(6.6225)
= $751.83
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6182 + -0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(6.6571)
= $778.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6182 + -0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(6.5713)
= $714.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.20% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.