ServiceNow Inc (NOW)
ServiceNow is an American software company based in Santa Clara, California that develops a cloud computing platform to help companies manage digital workflows for enterprise operations.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.55% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $828.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.26% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $68.46 (9.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: April 17, 2024
a = 4.2702
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0585
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 66.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0585) – 1
= 26.35%
September 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y795)
= Exp(a + b × X795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2702 + 0.0014 × 1,153 + 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(5.9986)
= $402.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y795)
= Exp(a + b × X795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2702 + 0.0014 × 1,153 – 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(5.7647)
= $318.85
April 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2702 + 0.0014 × 1,727 + 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(6.8008)
= $898.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2702 + 0.0014 × 1,727 – 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(6.5670)
= $711.22
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.55% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $828.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 11, 2024
End date: June 26, 2024
a = 7.4502
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0357
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0357) – 1
= 15.37%
January 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4502 + -0.0005 × 1,630 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(6.7291)
= $836.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4502 + -0.0005 × 1,630 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(6.5861)
= $724.94
June 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4502 + -0.0005 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(6.6479)
= $771.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4502 + -0.0005 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(6.5049)
= $668.39
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.26% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $68.46 (9.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.