HP Inc (HPQ)
HP Inc. is an American multinational information technology company headquartered in Palo Alto, California, that develops personal computers (PCs), printers and related supplies, as well as 3D printing solutions.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.54% per annum.
- HPQ price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $29.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.93% per annum.
- HPQ price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HPQ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2021
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 3.6411
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0911
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0911) – 1
= 43.98%
November 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y627)
= Exp(a + b × X627 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 906 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6411 + -0.0002 × 906 + 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(3.6554)
= $38.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y627)
= Exp(a + b × X627 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 906 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6411 + -0.0002 × 906 – 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(3.2909)
= $26.87
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6411 + -0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(3.4853)
= $32.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6411 + -0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(3.1208)
= $22.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.54% per annum.
- HPQ price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $29.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2022
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 3.0559
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0600
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0600) – 1
= 27.14%
August 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y833)
= Exp(a + b × X833 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0559 + 0.0002 × 1,206 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(3.3973)
= $29.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y833)
= Exp(a + b × X833 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0559 + 0.0002 × 1,206 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(3.1572)
= $23.50
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0559 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(3.5107)
= $33.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0559 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(3.2706)
= $26.33
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.93% per annum.
- HPQ price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.