Centene Corp (CNC)
Centene Corporation is a large publicly traded company and a multi-line managed care enterprise that serves as a major intermediary for both government-sponsored and privately insured health care programs. It is a healthcare insurer that focuses on managed care for uninsured, underinsured, and low-income individuals.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.86% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $77.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.31 (10.37%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.46% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CNC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 10, 2021
End date: November 10, 2023
a = 4.9067
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0762
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0762) – 1
= 35.65%
December 10, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y652)
= Exp(a + b × X652 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 942 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9067 + -0.0004 × 942 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(4.6441)
= $103.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y652)
= Exp(a + b × X652 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 942 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9067 + -0.0004 × 942 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(4.3391)
= $76.64
November 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,642 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9067 + -0.0004 × 1,642 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(4.3356)
= $76.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,642 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9067 + -0.0004 × 1,642 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(4.0307)
= $56.30
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.86% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $77.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.31 (10.37%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 8, 2023
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 3.5068
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0380
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0380) – 1
= 16.43%
March 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y962)
= Exp(a + b × X962 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5068 + 0.0005 × 1,395 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(4.2304)
= $68.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y962)
= Exp(a + b × X962 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5068 + 0.0005 × 1,395 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(4.0783)
= $59.05
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5068 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(4.4296)
= $83.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5068 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(4.2775)
= $72.06
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.46% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.