Elevance Health Inc (ELV)
Elevance Health Inc. is a health benefits company. The company is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.36% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $514.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.49 (1.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.10% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $17.78 (3.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2021
End date: February 6, 2024
a = 6.1533
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0481
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0481) – 1
= 21.22%
December 14, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y602)
= Exp(a + b × X602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 872 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1533 + 0.0000 × 872 + 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(6.2409)
= $513.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y602)
= Exp(a + b × X602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 872 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1533 + 0.0000 × 872 – 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(6.0485)
= $423.47
February 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,656 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1533 + 0.0000 × 1,656 + 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(6.2332)
= $509.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,656 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1533 + 0.0000 × 1,656 – 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(6.0408)
= $420.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.36% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $514.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.49 (1.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 24, 2023
End date: July 16, 2024
a = 4.9997
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0198
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0198) – 1
= 8.26%
August 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,490 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9997 + 0.0007 × 1,490 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(6.1134)
= $451.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,490 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9997 + 0.0007 × 1,490 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(6.0341)
= $417.41
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9997 + 0.0007 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(6.3491)
= $572.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9997 + 0.0007 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(6.2698)
= $528.37
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.10% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $17.78 (3.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.