Elevance Health Inc (ELV)
Elevance Health Inc. is a health benefits company. The company is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.41% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $528.58 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.48 (3.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.01% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of April 30, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 15, 2021
End date: February 6, 2024
a = 6.1593
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0480
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0480) – 1
= 21.15%
December 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y663)
= Exp(a + b × X663 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1593 + 0.0000 × 959 + 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(6.2444)
= $515.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y663)
= Exp(a + b × X663 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1593 + 0.0000 × 959 – 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(6.0526)
= $425.20
February 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1593 + 0.0000 × 1,742 + 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(6.2356)
= $510.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1593 + 0.0000 × 1,742 – 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(6.0437)
= $421.47
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.41% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $528.58 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.48 (3.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2023
End date: April 30, 2024
a = 4.8368
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0180
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0180) – 1
= 7.48%
August 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8368 + 0.0008 × 1,583 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(6.1100)
= $450.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8368 + 0.0008 × 1,583 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(6.0378)
= $418.98
April 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8368 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(6.2999)
= $544.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8368 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(6.2277)
= $506.61
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.01% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of April 30, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.