Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)
Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed care services to low-income individuals and families under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces. The company is headquartered in Long Beach, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 10.61% per annum.
- MOH price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $354.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.68% per annum.
- MOH price at the close of May 10, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $9.74 (2.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MOH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 13, 2021
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 5.3866
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0879
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0879) – 1
= 42.16%
April 13, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y483)
= Exp(a + b × X483 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3866 + 0.0003 × 701 + 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(5.7561)
= $316.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y483)
= Exp(a + b × X483 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3866 + 0.0003 × 701 – 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(5.4044)
= $222.37
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3866 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(6.0664)
= $431.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3866 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(5.7146)
= $303.26
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 10.61% per annum.
- MOH price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $354.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2023
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 4.3295
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0506
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0506) – 1
= 22.44%
February 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y955)
= Exp(a + b × X955 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3295 + 0.0009 × 1,386 + 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(5.6996)
= $298.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y955)
= Exp(a + b × X955 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3295 + 0.0009 × 1,386 – 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(5.4971)
= $243.98
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3295 + 0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(6.1006)
= $446.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3295 + 0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(5.8981)
= $364.34
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.68% per annum.
- MOH price at the close of May 10, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $9.74 (2.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.