Stock Price Trends

HealthEquity Inc (HQY)

HealthEquity, Inc. provides technology-enabled service platforms to consumers and employers in the United States. The company is headquartered in Draper, Utah.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.90% per annum.
  • HQY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $86.42 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.22 (2.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 84.40% per annum.
  • HQY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.84 (4.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HQY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 16, 2022
End date: March 18, 2025

a = 3.3285

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0759

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0759) – 1
= 35.46%

December 16, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y664)
= Exp(a + b × X664 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 960 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3285 + 0.0007 × 960 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.1682)
= $64.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y664)
= Exp(a + b × X664 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 960 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3285 + 0.0007 × 960 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(3.8647)
= $47.69

March 18, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3285 + 0.0007 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.7580)
= $116.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3285 + 0.0007 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.4545)
= $86.01

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.90% per annum.
  • HQY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $86.42 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.22 (2.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 30, 2025
End date: April 22, 2025

a = 13.6144

b = -0.0051

s = 0.0445

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0051) – 1
= -84.40%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0445) – 1
= 19.50%

January 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6144 + -0.0051 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(4.8668)
= $129.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6144 + -0.0051 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(4.6886)
= $108.70

April 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6144 + -0.0051 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(4.4493)
= $85.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6144 + -0.0051 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(4.2712)
= $71.61

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 84.40% per annum.
  • HQY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.84 (4.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.