Humana Inc (HUM)
Humana Inc. is a for-profit American health insurance company based in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 66.31% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $305.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.19% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HUM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 16, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 11.1591
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0446
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -66.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0446) – 1
= 19.53%
October 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1591 + -0.0030 × 1,631 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(6.3864)
= $593.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1591 + -0.0030 × 1,631 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(6.2081)
= $496.75
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1591 + -0.0030 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(5.8111)
= $334.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1591 + -0.0030 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(5.6328)
= $279.44
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 66.31% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $305.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 25, 2024
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 9.3357
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0289
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0289) – 1
= 12.25%
January 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3357 + -0.0020 × 1,732 + 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(5.9898)
= $399.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3357 + -0.0020 × 1,732 – 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(5.8743)
= $355.79
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3357 + -0.0020 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(5.8091)
= $333.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3357 + -0.0020 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(5.6935)
= $296.94
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.19% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.