Humana Inc (HUM)
Humana Inc. is a for-profit American health insurance company based in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.14% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $386.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 114.80% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HUM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 20, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 7.1802
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0944
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0944) – 1
= 45.86%
October 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y816)
= Exp(a + b × X816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1802 + -0.0007 × 1,182 + 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(6.5166)
= $676.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y816)
= Exp(a + b × X816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1802 + -0.0007 × 1,182 – 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(6.1391)
= $463.63
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1802 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(6.0522)
= $425.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1802 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(5.6747)
= $291.39
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.14% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $386.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 2, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.1418
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0259
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 114.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0259) – 1
= 10.91%
April 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1418 + 0.0021 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.7795)
= $323.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1418 + 0.0021 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.6760)
= $291.77
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1418 + 0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(6.0183)
= $410.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1418 + 0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.9148)
= $370.46
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 114.80% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.