# Humana Inc (HUM)

Humana Inc. is a for-profit American health insurance company based in Louisville, Kentucky.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.23% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of October 3, 2024 was $241.78 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $35.82 (12.90%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.97% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of October 3, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $43.87 (15.36%).

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of HUM price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: October 21, 2022

End date: October 1, 2024

a = 7.1319

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0916

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1

= -23.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0916) – 1

= 44.26%

#### October 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{768})

= Exp(a + b × X_{768} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,113 + 2 × s)

= Exp(7.1319 + -0.0007 × 1,113 + 2 × 0.0916)

= Exp(6.5090)

= $671.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{768})

= Exp(a + b × X_{768} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,113 – 2 × s)

= Exp(7.1319 + -0.0007 × 1,113 – 2 × 0.0916)

= Exp(6.1426)

= $465.25

#### October 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,255})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,255} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(7.1319 + -0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0916)

= Exp(5.9941)

= $401.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,255})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,255} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(7.1319 + -0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0916)

= Exp(5.6276)

= $278.01

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.23% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of October 3, 2024 was $241.78 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $35.82 (12.90%).

### Secondary Trend

Start date: July 12, 2024

End date: October 1, 2024

a = 11.2706

b = -0.0030

s = 0.0374

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1

= -66.97%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0374) – 1

= 16.13%

#### July 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,199})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,199} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)

= Exp(11.2706 + -0.0030 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0374)

= Exp(6.0561)

= $426.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,199})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,199} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)

= Exp(11.2706 + -0.0030 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0374)

= Exp(5.9066)

= $367.47

#### October 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,255})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,255} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(11.2706 + -0.0030 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0374)

= Exp(5.8103)

= $333.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,255})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,255} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(11.2706 + -0.0030 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0374)

= Exp(5.6608)

= $287.39

#### Description

- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.97% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of October 3, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $43.87 (15.36%).