Humana Inc (HUM)
Humana Inc. is a for-profit American health insurance company based in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.23% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of October 3, 2024 was $241.78 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $35.82 (12.90%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.97% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of October 3, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $43.87 (15.36%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HUM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: October 1, 2024
a = 7.1319
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0916
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0916) – 1
= 44.26%
October 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y768)
= Exp(a + b × X768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,113 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1319 + -0.0007 × 1,113 + 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(6.5090)
= $671.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y768)
= Exp(a + b × X768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,113 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1319 + -0.0007 × 1,113 – 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(6.1426)
= $465.25
October 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1319 + -0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(5.9941)
= $401.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1319 + -0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(5.6276)
= $278.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.23% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of October 3, 2024 was $241.78 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $35.82 (12.90%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 12, 2024
End date: October 1, 2024
a = 11.2706
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0374
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -66.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0374) – 1
= 16.13%
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2706 + -0.0030 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(6.0561)
= $426.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2706 + -0.0030 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(5.9066)
= $367.47
October 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2706 + -0.0030 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(5.8103)
= $333.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2706 + -0.0030 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(5.6608)
= $287.39
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.97% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of October 3, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $43.87 (15.36%).