Enova International Inc (ENVA)
Enova International, Inc., a technology and analytics company, offers online financial services in the United States, Brazil, Australia, and Canada. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.15% per annum.
- ENVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $81.07 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $34.90 (75.59%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.62% per annum.
- ENVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 5, 2021
End date: January 10, 2023
a = 3.5083
b = 0.0001
s = 0.1088
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1088) – 1
= 54.51%
February 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y386)
= Exp(a + b × X386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 560 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5083 + 0.0001 × 560 + 2 × 0.1088)
= Exp(3.7585)
= $42.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y386)
= Exp(a + b × X386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 560 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5083 + 0.0001 × 560 – 2 × 0.1088)
= Exp(3.3234)
= $27.75
January 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y871)
= Exp(a + b × X871 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,264 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5083 + 0.0001 × 1,264 + 2 × 0.1088)
= Exp(3.7995)
= $44.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y871)
= Exp(a + b × X871 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,264 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5083 + 0.0001 × 1,264 – 2 × 0.1088)
= Exp(3.3644)
= $28.92
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.15% per annum.
- ENVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $81.07 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $34.90 (75.59%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.4948
b = 0.0009
s = 0.1043
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1043) – 1
= 51.77%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y700)
= Exp(a + b × X700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4948 + 0.0009 × 1,014 + 2 × 0.1043)
= Exp(3.6503)
= $38.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y700)
= Exp(a + b × X700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4948 + 0.0009 × 1,014 – 2 × 0.1043)
= Exp(3.2331)
= $25.36
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4948 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1043)
= Exp(4.4086)
= $82.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4948 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1043)
= Exp(3.9914)
= $54.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.62% per annum.
- ENVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.