Stock Price Trends

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)

Capital One Financial Corporation is a leading American bank holding company headquartered in McLean, Virginia, known for its innovation in credit card offerings, auto financing, and various banking services. With a strong focus on digital banking and customer-centric financial solutions, Capital One has established itself as a major player in the U.S. financial services industry. Its robust technological infrastructure and commitment to data-driven decisions enable the company to effectively manage risk while enhancing customer experiences. As a forward-thinking institution, Capital One is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities in the evolving financial landscape.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.10% per annum.
  • COF price at the close of January 2, 2026 was $247.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 484.94% per annum.
  • COF price at the close of January 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: January 2, 2026

a = 3.7002

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0777

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.10%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0777) – 1
= 36.44%

March 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y547)
= Exp(a + b × X547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7002 + 0.0010 × 793 + 2 × 0.0777)
= Exp(4.6340)
= $102.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y547)
= Exp(a + b × X547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7002 + 0.0010 × 793 – 2 × 0.0777)
= Exp(4.3233)
= $75.44

January 2, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7002 + 0.0010 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0777)
= Exp(5.6453)
= $282.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7002 + 0.0010 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0777)
= Exp(5.3345)
= $207.38

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.10% per annum.
  • COF price at the close of January 2, 2026 was $247.93 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 17, 2025
End date: January 2, 2026

a = -3.2713

b = 0.0048

s = 0.0235

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0048) – 1
= 484.94%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0235) – 1
= 9.87%

November 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2713 + 0.0048 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(5.3752)
= $215.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2713 + 0.0048 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(5.2811)
= $196.58

January 2, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2713 + 0.0048 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(5.5978)
= $269.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2713 + 0.0048 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(5.5037)
= $245.59

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 484.94% per annum.
  • COF price at the close of January 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.