Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)
Encore Capital Group, Inc., a specialty finance company, offers debt recovery solutions and other related services to consumers in a variety of financial assets worldwide. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.42% per annum.
- ECPG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $35.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 91.60% per annum.
- ECPG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.62 (8.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ECPG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2021
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 4.3555
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0802
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0802) – 1
= 37.83%
November 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y383)
= Exp(a + b × X383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 553 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3555 + -0.0004 × 553 + 2 × 0.0802)
= Exp(4.2976)
= $73.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y383)
= Exp(a + b × X383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 553 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3555 + -0.0004 × 553 – 2 × 0.0802)
= Exp(3.9767)
= $53.34
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,537 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3555 + -0.0004 × 1,537 + 2 × 0.0802)
= Exp(3.9090)
= $49.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,537 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3555 + -0.0004 × 1,537 – 2 × 0.0802)
= Exp(3.5882)
= $36.17
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.42% per annum.
- ECPG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $35.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 15, 2025
End date: April 22, 2025
a = 15.6841
b = -0.0068
s = 0.0906
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0068) – 1
= -91.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0906) – 1
= 43.70%
January 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6841 + -0.0068 × 1,721 + 2 × 0.0906)
= Exp(4.1878)
= $65.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6841 + -0.0068 × 1,721 – 2 × 0.0906)
= Exp(3.8252)
= $45.84
April 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6841 + -0.0068 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0906)
= Exp(3.5296)
= $34.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6841 + -0.0068 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0906)
= Exp(3.1670)
= $23.74
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 91.60% per annum.
- ECPG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.62 (8.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.