Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)
Encore Capital Group, Inc., a specialty finance company, offers debt recovery solutions and other related services to consumers in a variety of financial assets worldwide. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.42% per annum.
- ECPG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $50.30 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.67 (1.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,567.60% per annum.
- ECPG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ECPG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2021
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 4.4645
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0802
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0802) – 1
= 37.83%
November 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y574)
= Exp(a + b × X574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 829 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4645 + -0.0004 × 829 + 2 × 0.0802)
= Exp(4.2976)
= $73.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y574)
= Exp(a + b × X574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 829 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4645 + -0.0004 × 829 – 2 × 0.0802)
= Exp(3.9767)
= $53.34
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4645 + -0.0004 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0802)
= Exp(3.9090)
= $49.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4645 + -0.0004 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0802)
= Exp(3.5882)
= $36.17
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.42% per annum.
- ECPG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $50.30 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.67 (1.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 25, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = -10.1464
b = 0.0077
s = 0.0277
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0077) – 1
= 1,567.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0277) – 1
= 11.73%
June 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.1464 + 0.0077 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(3.7322)
= $41.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.1464 + 0.0077 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(3.6213)
= $37.39
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.1464 + 0.0077 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(3.9712)
= $53.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.1464 + 0.0077 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(3.8603)
= $47.48
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,567.60% per annum.
- ECPG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.