Stock Price Trends

Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)

Green Dot Corporation is a banking and fintech holding company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Pasadena, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.58% per annum.
  • GDOT price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $8.19 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.53 (23.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.03% per annum.
  • GDOT price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GDOT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 10, 2023
End date: January 2, 2025

a = 1.1463

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0724

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0724) – 1
= 33.61%

November 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y892)
= Exp(a + b × X892 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1463 + 0.0008 × 1,291 + 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(2.2618)
= $9.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y892)
= Exp(a + b × X892 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1463 + 0.0008 × 1,291 – 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(1.9721)
= $7.19

January 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1463 + 0.0008 × 1,710 + 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(2.5769)
= $13.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1463 + 0.0008 × 1,710 – 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(2.2871)
= $9.85

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.58% per annum.
  • GDOT price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $8.19 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.53 (23.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 6.4414

b = -0.0024

s = 0.0718

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -59.03%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0718) – 1
= 33.27%

September 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4414 + -0.0024 × 1,599 + 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(2.6762)
= $14.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4414 + -0.0024 × 1,599 – 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(2.3890)
= $10.90

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4414 + -0.0024 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(2.1311)
= $8.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4414 + -0.0024 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(1.8438)
= $6.32

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.03% per annum.
  • GDOT price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.