# The AES Corporation (AES)

the aes corporation (nyse:aes) is a fortune 200 global power company. we provide affordable, sustainable energy to 18 countries through our diverse portfolio of distribution businesses as well as thermal and renewable generation facilities. our workforce of 18,500 people is committed to operational excellence and meeting the world’s changing power needs. our 2014 revenues were $17 billion and we own and manage $39 billion in total assets. to learn more, please visit www.aes.com. other ways to connect with us: • become an aes person: www.aes.com/careers • follow us on twitter: twitter.com/theaescorp • subscribe to our videos at: www.youtube.com/user/theaescorporation

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.72% per annum.
- AES price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $16.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.33 (8.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 281.63% per annum.
- AES price at the close of February 16, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.46 (17.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of AES price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date:

End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × ) – 1

=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × ) – 1

=

#### October 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### November 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.72% per annum.
- AES price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $16.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.33 (8.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date:

End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × ) – 1

=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × ) – 1

=

#### September 22, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### January 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 281.63% per annum.
- AES price at the close of February 16, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.46 (17.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.