The AES Corporation (AES)
The AES Corporation is a Fortune 500 company that generates and distributes electrical power. AES is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.95% per annum.
- AES price at the close of August 15, 2025 was $13.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 349.93% per annum.
- AES price at the close of August 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AES price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 10, 2022
End date: July 8, 2025
a = 3.7378
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1347
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -23.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1347) – 1
= 71.41%
August 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y499)
= Exp(a + b × X499 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7378 + -0.0008 × 723 + 2 × 0.1347)
= Exp(3.4649)
= $31.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y499)
= Exp(a + b × X499 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7378 + -0.0008 × 723 – 2 × 0.1347)
= Exp(2.9260)
= $18.65
July 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7378 + -0.0008 × 1,786 + 2 × 0.1347)
= Exp(2.6674)
= $14.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7378 + -0.0008 × 1,786 – 2 × 0.1347)
= Exp(2.1286)
= $8.40
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.95% per annum.
- AES price at the close of August 15, 2025 was $13.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 21, 2025
End date: August 15, 2025
a = -4.8909
b = 0.0041
s = 0.0542
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0041) – 1
= 349.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0542) – 1
= 24.22%
May 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8909 + 0.0041 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(2.3787)
= $10.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8909 + 0.0041 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(2.1619)
= $8.69
August 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8909 + 0.0041 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(2.7331)
= $15.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8909 + 0.0041 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(2.5162)
= $12.38
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 349.93% per annum.
- AES price at the close of August 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.