NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)
NRG Energy, Inc. is a large American energy company, headquartered in Houston, Texas. It was formerly the wholesale arm of Northern States Power Company (NSP), which became Xcel Energy, but became independent in 2000. NRG Energy is involved in energy generation and retail electricity.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 143.70% per annum.
- NRG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $73.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.31 (3.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.04% per annum.
- NRG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NRG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 4, 2023
End date: July 16, 2024
a = -0.0023
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0655
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 143.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0655) – 1
= 29.96%
May 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0023 + 0.0024 × 1,378 + 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.4916)
= $32.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0023 + 0.0024 × 1,378 – 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.2295)
= $25.27
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0023 + 0.0024 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(4.5629)
= $95.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0023 + 0.0024 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(4.3009)
= $73.77
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 143.70% per annum.
- NRG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $73.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.31 (3.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 6.7211
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0232
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0232) – 1
= 9.71%
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7211 + -0.0013 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(4.4739)
= $87.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7211 + -0.0013 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(4.3812)
= $79.94
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7211 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(4.3729)
= $79.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7211 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(4.2802)
= $72.26
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.04% per annum.
- NRG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.