Mercer International Inc (MERC)
Mercer International Inc., manufactures and sells Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp (NBSK) in Europe, the United States, Asia and internationally. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.39% per annum.
- MERC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $7.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.40% per annum.
- MERC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.19 (2.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MERC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 17, 2022
End date: February 27, 2024
a = 3.5578
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1040
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1040) – 1
= 51.62%
February 17, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y647)
= Exp(a + b × X647 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 937 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5578 + -0.0009 × 937 + 2 × 0.1040)
= Exp(2.9086)
= $18.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y647)
= Exp(a + b × X647 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 937 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5578 + -0.0009 × 937 – 2 × 0.1040)
= Exp(2.4924)
= $12.09
February 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5578 + -0.0009 × 1,677 + 2 × 0.1040)
= Exp(2.2316)
= $9.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5578 + -0.0009 × 1,677 – 2 × 0.1040)
= Exp(1.8154)
= $6.14
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.39% per annum.
- MERC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $7.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2023
End date: June 28, 2024
a = 1.8715
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0731
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0731) – 1
= 33.98%
March 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y915)
= Exp(a + b × X915 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8715 + 0.0002 × 1,328 + 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(2.2775)
= $9.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y915)
= Exp(a + b × X915 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8715 + 0.0002 × 1,328 – 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(1.9850)
= $7.28
June 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8715 + 0.0002 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(2.3696)
= $10.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8715 + 0.0002 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(2.0771)
= $7.98
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.40% per annum.
- MERC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.19 (2.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.