Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation, manufactures and markets construction products primarily for use in the construction, repair and remodeling of new homes and outdoor structures markets. The company is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.29% per annum.
- LPX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $95.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.27 (25.19%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 91.78% per annum.
- LPX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LPX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2021
End date: February 26, 2024
a = 4.0668
b = 0.0000
s = 0.1033
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1033) – 1
= 51.19%
March 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y409)
= Exp(a + b × X409 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 594 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0668 + 0.0000 × 594 + 2 × 0.1033)
= Exp(4.2943)
= $73.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y409)
= Exp(a + b × X409 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 594 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0668 + 0.0000 × 594 – 2 × 0.1033)
= Exp(3.8809)
= $48.47
February 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0668 + 0.0000 × 1,676 + 2 × 0.1033)
= Exp(4.3322)
= $76.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0668 + 0.0000 × 1,676 – 2 × 0.1033)
= Exp(3.9188)
= $50.34
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.29% per annum.
- LPX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $95.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.27 (25.19%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.2827
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0620
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 91.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0620) – 1
= 28.17%
September 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2827 + 0.0018 × 1,510 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(4.1007)
= $60.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2827 + 0.0018 × 1,510 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(3.8525)
= $47.11
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2827 + 0.0018 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(4.6645)
= $106.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2827 + 0.0018 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(4.4163)
= $82.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 91.78% per annum.
- LPX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.