Six Flags Entertainment New (SIX)
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation owns and operates regional water and theme parks under the Six Flags name. The company is headquartered in Arlington, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.79% per annum.
- SIX price at the close of July 1, 2024 was $32.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $17.87 (126.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.00% per annum.
- SIX price at the close of July 1, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.09 (6.99%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SIX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2021
End date: January 11, 2023
a = 4.6752
b = -0.0013
s = 0.1582
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1582) – 1
= 88.28%
February 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y385)
= Exp(a + b × X385 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6752 + -0.0013 × 559 + 2 × 0.1582)
= Exp(4.2647)
= $71.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y385)
= Exp(a + b × X385 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6752 + -0.0013 × 559 – 2 × 0.1582)
= Exp(3.6319)
= $37.79
January 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,265 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6752 + -0.0013 × 1,265 + 2 × 0.1582)
= Exp(3.3466)
= $28.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,265 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6752 + -0.0013 × 1,265 – 2 × 0.1582)
= Exp(2.7139)
= $15.09
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.79% per annum.
- SIX price at the close of July 1, 2024 was $32.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $17.87 (126.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: June 27, 2024
a = 2.8741
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0949
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0949) – 1
= 46.17%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8741 + 0.0002 × 1,053 + 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(3.2592)
= $26.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8741 + 0.0002 × 1,053 – 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(2.8796)
= $17.81
June 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8741 + 0.0002 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(3.3974)
= $29.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8741 + 0.0002 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(3.0178)
= $20.45
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.00% per annum.
- SIX price at the close of July 1, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.09 (6.99%).