Century Aluminum Company (CENX)
Century Aluminum Company produces standard quality and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.58% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of July 15, 2025 was $20.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.48% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of July 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CENX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 23, 2022
End date: July 15, 2025
a = 1.1466
b = 0.0010
s = 0.2107
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2107) – 1
= 132.29%
June 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y488)
= Exp(a + b × X488 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1466 + 0.0010 × 707 + 2 × 0.2107)
= Exp(2.2955)
= $9.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y488)
= Exp(a + b × X488 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1466 + 0.0010 × 707 – 2 × 0.2107)
= Exp(1.4527)
= $4.27
July 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1466 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.2107)
= Exp(3.4459)
= $31.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1466 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.2107)
= Exp(2.6031)
= $13.50
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.58% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of July 15, 2025 was $20.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 5, 2024
End date: July 15, 2025
a = 4.5577
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0931
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0931) – 1
= 45.14%
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,573 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5577 + -0.0010 × 1,573 + 2 × 0.0931)
= Exp(3.2387)
= $25.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,573 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5577 + -0.0010 × 1,573 – 2 × 0.0931)
= Exp(2.8662)
= $17.57
July 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5577 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0931)
= Exp(2.9976)
= $20.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5577 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0931)
= Exp(2.6251)
= $13.81
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.48% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of July 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.