Century Aluminum Company (CENX)
Century Aluminum Company produces standard quality and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.07% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of August 29, 2025 was $22.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 198.75% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of August 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CENX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 23, 2022
End date: August 29, 2025
a = 1.1843
b = 0.0010
s = 0.2067
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2067) – 1
= 128.56%
June 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y456)
= Exp(a + b × X456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 661 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1843 + 0.0010 × 661 + 2 × 0.2067)
= Exp(2.2839)
= $9.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y456)
= Exp(a + b × X456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 661 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1843 + 0.0010 × 661 – 2 × 0.2067)
= Exp(1.4572)
= $4.29
August 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1843 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.2067)
= Exp(3.4913)
= $32.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1843 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.2067)
= Exp(2.6647)
= $14.36
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.07% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of August 29, 2025 was $22.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: August 29, 2025
a = -2.3287
b = 0.0030
s = 0.0589
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 198.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0589) – 1
= 26.56%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3287 + 0.0030 × 1,677 + 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(2.8175)
= $16.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3287 + 0.0030 × 1,677 – 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(2.5819)
= $13.22
August 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3287 + 0.0030 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(3.2582)
= $26.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3287 + 0.0030 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(3.0227)
= $20.55
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 198.75% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of August 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.