Century Aluminum Company (CENX)
Century Aluminum Company, headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, is a leading producer of primary aluminum products, leveraging its strategic operations in the United States and Iceland. The company specializes in both standard quality and value-added aluminum offerings, catering to a diverse range of industries. With a commitment to sustainability and operational efficiency, Century Aluminum is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for aluminum in various markets, reinforcing its competitive edge within the global metal industry.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.30% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of December 12, 2025 was $31.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 222.26% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of December 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CENX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 23, 2022
End date: December 12, 2025
a = 1.2182
b = 0.0011
s = 0.2063
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2063) – 1
= 128.25%
June 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y383)
= Exp(a + b × X383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 556 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2182 + 0.0011 × 556 + 2 × 0.2063)
= Exp(2.2515)
= $9.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y383)
= Exp(a + b × X383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 556 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2182 + 0.0011 × 556 – 2 × 0.2063)
= Exp(1.4263)
= $4.16
December 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2182 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.2063)
= Exp(3.6671)
= $39.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2182 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.2063)
= Exp(2.8419)
= $17.15
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.30% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of December 12, 2025 was $31.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: December 12, 2025
a = -2.3474
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0756
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 222.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0756) – 1
= 35.29%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3474 + 0.0032 × 1,572 + 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(2.8436)
= $17.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3474 + 0.0032 × 1,572 – 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(2.5413)
= $12.70
December 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3474 + 0.0032 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(3.6515)
= $38.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3474 + 0.0032 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(3.3492)
= $28.48
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 222.26% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of December 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.