Alcoa Corp (AA)
Alcoa Corporation produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.75% per annum.
- AA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $32.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 95.50% per annum.
- AA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.08 (5.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 10, 2021
End date: April 1, 2024
a = 4.9390
b = -0.0010
s = 0.1857
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1857) – 1
= 110.19%
September 10, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9390 + -0.0010 × 777 + 2 × 0.1857)
= Exp(4.5588)
= $95.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9390 + -0.0010 × 777 – 2 × 0.1857)
= Exp(3.8160)
= $45.42
April 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,711 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9390 + -0.0010 × 1,711 + 2 × 0.1857)
= Exp(3.6553)
= $38.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,711 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9390 + -0.0010 × 1,711 – 2 × 0.1857)
= Exp(2.9125)
= $18.40
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.75% per annum.
- AA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $32.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 25, 2023
End date: July 17, 2024
a = 0.3819
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0904
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 95.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0904) – 1
= 43.57%
September 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,522 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3819 + 0.0018 × 1,522 + 2 × 0.0904)
= Exp(3.3583)
= $28.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,522 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3819 + 0.0018 × 1,522 – 2 × 0.0904)
= Exp(2.9966)
= $20.02
July 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3819 + 0.0018 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0904)
= Exp(3.9019)
= $49.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3819 + 0.0018 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0904)
= Exp(3.5403)
= $34.48
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 95.50% per annum.
- AA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.08 (5.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.