Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation manufactures and sells specialty semi-finished aluminum mill products. The company is headquartered in Foothill Ranch, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 377.15% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of March 5, 2026 was $125.84 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.38 (9.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 76.07% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of March 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KALU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 2, 2025
End date: February 18, 2026
a = -2.7809
b = 0.0043
s = 0.0439
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0043) – 1
= 377.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0439) – 1
= 19.20%
September 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.7809 + 0.0043 × 1,639 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(4.3239)
= $75.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.7809 + 0.0043 × 1,639 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(4.1483)
= $63.33
February 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.7809 + 0.0043 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(5.0475)
= $155.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.7809 + 0.0043 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(4.8719)
= $130.56
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 377.15% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of March 5, 2026 was $125.84 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.38 (9.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 6, 2026
End date: March 5, 2026
a = 11.9919
b = -0.0039
s = 0.0317
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0039) – 1
= -76.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0317) – 1
= 13.52%
February 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9919 + -0.0039 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(5.0195)
= $151.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9919 + -0.0039 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(4.8927)
= $133.32
March 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9919 + -0.0039 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(4.9137)
= $136.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9919 + -0.0039 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(4.7869)
= $119.93
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 76.07% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of March 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.