Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation manufactures and sells specialty semi-finished aluminum mill products. The company is headquartered in Foothill Ranch, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.30% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of October 20, 2025 was $80.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.35% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of October 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KALU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 16, 2022
End date: October 20, 2025
a = 4.1031
b = 0.0001
s = 0.1292
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1292) – 1
= 67.66%
June 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y416)
= Exp(a + b × X416 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1031 + 0.0001 × 603 + 2 × 0.1292)
= Exp(4.4310)
= $84.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y416)
= Exp(a + b × X416 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1031 + 0.0001 × 603 – 2 × 0.1292)
= Exp(3.9142)
= $50.11
October 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1031 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1292)
= Exp(4.5718)
= $96.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1031 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1292)
= Exp(4.0550)
= $57.69
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.30% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of October 20, 2025 was $80.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 21, 2025
End date: October 20, 2025
a = 1.6688
b = 0.0015
s = 0.1010
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1010) – 1
= 49.75%
March 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,108)
= Exp(a + b × X1,108 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,612 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6688 + 0.0015 × 1,612 + 2 × 0.1010)
= Exp(4.3258)
= $75.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,108)
= Exp(a + b × X1,108 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,612 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6688 + 0.0015 × 1,612 – 2 × 0.1010)
= Exp(3.9220)
= $50.50
October 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6688 + 0.0015 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1010)
= Exp(4.6502)
= $104.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6688 + 0.0015 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1010)
= Exp(4.2464)
= $69.85
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.35% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of October 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.