Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation manufactures and sells specialty semi-finished aluminum mill products. The company is headquartered in Foothill Ranch, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 135.61% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of March 20, 2026 was $107.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.11 (1.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.67% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of March 20, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.85 (2.60%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KALU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 21, 2025
End date: March 18, 2026
a = 0.6052
b = 0.0023
s = 0.1022
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 135.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1022) – 1
= 50.49%
March 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,460 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6052 + 0.0023 × 1,460 + 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(4.2376)
= $69.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,460 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6052 + 0.0023 × 1,460 – 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(3.8289)
= $46.01
March 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6052 + 0.0023 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(5.0875)
= $161.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6052 + 0.0023 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(4.6788)
= $107.64
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 135.61% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of March 20, 2026 was $107.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.11 (1.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 6, 2026
End date: March 19, 2026
a = 13.8167
b = -0.0050
s = 0.0303
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0050) – 1
= -83.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0303) – 1
= 12.87%
February 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8167 + -0.0050 × 1,782 + 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(5.0291)
= $152.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8167 + -0.0050 × 1,782 – 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(4.9080)
= $135.37
March 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8167 + -0.0050 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(4.8256)
= $124.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8167 + -0.0050 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(4.7045)
= $110.44
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.67% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of March 20, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.85 (2.60%).