Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation manufactures and sells specialty semi-finished aluminum mill products. The company is headquartered in Foothill Ranch, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 171.98% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $78.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.87 (20.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.41% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $6.17 (7.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KALU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 25, 2023
End date: June 13, 2024
a = -0.2884
b = 0.0027
s = 0.0664
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 171.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0664) – 1
= 30.44%
October 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,552 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2884 + 0.0027 × 1,552 + 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(4.0989)
= $60.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,552 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2884 + 0.0027 × 1,552 – 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(3.8331)
= $46.21
June 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2884 + 0.0027 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(4.7348)
= $113.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2884 + 0.0027 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(4.4691)
= $87.28
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 171.98% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $78.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.87 (20.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 27, 2024
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 4.3565
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0453
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0453) – 1
= 19.84%
March 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3565 + 0.0001 × 1,706 + 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(4.6036)
= $99.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3565 + 0.0001 × 1,706 – 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(4.4226)
= $83.31
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3565 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(4.6145)
= $100.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3565 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(4.4335)
= $84.22
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.41% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $6.17 (7.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.