Stock Price Trends

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation manufactures and sells specialty semi-finished aluminum mill products. The company is headquartered in Foothill Ranch, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 484.53% per annum.
  • KALU price at the close of January 16, 2026 was $128.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 787.18% per annum.
  • KALU price at the close of January 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KALU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 22, 2025
End date: January 16, 2026

a = -3.9697

b = 0.0048

s = 0.0382

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0048) – 1
= 484.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0382) – 1
= 16.53%

September 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9697 + 0.0048 × 1,707 + 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(4.3641)
= $78.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9697 + 0.0048 × 1,707 – 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(4.2111)
= $67.43

January 16, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9697 + 0.0048 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(4.9252)
= $137.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9697 + 0.0048 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(4.7723)
= $118.19

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 484.53% per annum.
  • KALU price at the close of January 16, 2026 was $128.24 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 14, 2025
End date: January 16, 2026

a = -6.0273

b = 0.0060

s = 0.0224

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0060) – 1
= 787.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0224) – 1
= 9.39%

November 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.0273 + 0.0060 × 1,760 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.5432)
= $93.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.0273 + 0.0060 × 1,760 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.4535)
= $85.92

January 16, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.0273 + 0.0060 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.9200)
= $137.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.0273 + 0.0060 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.8302)
= $125.24

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 787.18% per annum.
  • KALU price at the close of January 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.