Stock Price Trends

CSW Industrials Inc (CSWI)

CSW Industrials, Inc. is a diversified industrial company in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.41% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of June 6, 2025 was $305.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $65.22 (17.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.46% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of June 6, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSWI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 22, 2022
End date: January 29, 2025

a = 3.6075

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0946

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 66.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0946) – 1
= 46.01%

April 22, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y449)
= Exp(a + b × X449 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 648 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6075 + 0.0014 × 648 + 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(4.7009)
= $110.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y449)
= Exp(a + b × X449 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 648 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6075 + 0.0014 × 648 – 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(4.3224)
= $75.37

January 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,661 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6075 + 0.0014 × 1,661 + 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(6.1143)
= $452.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,661 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6075 + 0.0014 × 1,661 – 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(5.7358)
= $309.76

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.41% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of June 6, 2025 was $305.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $65.22 (17.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 24, 2024
End date: June 6, 2025

a = 8.0415

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0771

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.46%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0771) – 1
= 36.10%

September 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0415 + -0.0013 × 1,534 + 2 × 0.0771)
= Exp(6.1553)
= $471.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0415 + -0.0013 × 1,534 – 2 × 0.0771)
= Exp(5.8471)
= $346.23

June 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0415 + -0.0013 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0771)
= Exp(5.8162)
= $335.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0415 + -0.0013 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0771)
= Exp(5.5080)
= $246.65

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.46% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of June 6, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.