Stock Price Trends

CSW Industrials Inc (CSWI)

CSW Industrials, Inc. is a diversified industrial company in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.59% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $311.48 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $39.94 (11.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.68% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $27.79 (9.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSWI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 26, 2022
End date: January 29, 2025

a = 3.4986

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0943

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 66.59%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0943) – 1
= 45.80%

April 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y502)
= Exp(a + b × X502 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4986 + 0.0014 × 727 + 2 × 0.0943)
= Exp(4.7037)
= $110.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y502)
= Exp(a + b × X502 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4986 + 0.0014 × 727 – 2 × 0.0943)
= Exp(4.3266)
= $75.69

January 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4986 + 0.0014 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.0943)
= Exp(6.1146)
= $452.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4986 + 0.0014 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.0943)
= Exp(5.7375)
= $310.30

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.59% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $311.48 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $39.94 (11.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 10, 2025

a = 10.9105

b = -0.0029

s = 0.0426

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -65.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0426) – 1
= 18.57%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9105 + -0.0029 × 1,652 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(6.1548)
= $470.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9105 + -0.0029 × 1,652 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(5.9845)
= $397.22

April 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9105 + -0.0029 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(5.7006)
= $299.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9105 + -0.0029 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(5.5303)
= $252.22

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.68% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $27.79 (9.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.