Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)
Carlisle Companies Incorporated is a diversified manufacturer of engineered products in the United States, Europe, Asia, Canada, Mexico, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.80% per annum.
- CSL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $377.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $29.17 (8.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.54% per annum.
- CSL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2024
End date: April 11, 2025
a = 9.1025
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0480
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0480) – 1
= 21.17%
September 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1025 + -0.0018 × 1,604 + 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(6.2570)
= $521.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1025 + -0.0018 × 1,604 – 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(6.0650)
= $430.52
April 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1025 + -0.0018 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(5.8829)
= $358.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1025 + -0.0018 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(5.6909)
= $296.16
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.80% per annum.
- CSL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $377.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $29.17 (8.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 21, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 3.6673
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0299
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0299) – 1
= 12.72%
February 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6673 + 0.0012 × 1,759 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.8559)
= $349.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6673 + 0.0012 × 1,759 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.7362)
= $309.87
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6673 + 0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.9357)
= $378.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6673 + 0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.8160)
= $335.64
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.54% per annum.
- CSL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.