Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)
Carlisle Companies Incorporated is a diversified manufacturer of engineered products in the United States, Europe, Asia, Canada, Mexico, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 128.74% per annum.
- CSL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $408.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.35% per annum.
- CSL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 1.8714
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0362
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 128.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0362) – 1
= 15.57%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8714 + 0.0023 × 1,596 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(5.5617)
= $260.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8714 + 0.0023 × 1,596 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(5.4170)
= $225.21
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8714 + 0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(6.0831)
= $438.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8714 + 0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(5.9384)
= $379.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 128.74% per annum.
- CSL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $408.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 20, 2024
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 5.3836
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0298
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0298) – 1
= 12.65%
March 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3836 + 0.0003 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(6.0100)
= $407.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3836 + 0.0003 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(5.8908)
= $361.71
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3836 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(6.0256)
= $413.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3836 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(5.9065)
= $367.41
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.35% per annum.
- CSL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.