Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Honeywell International Inc. is an American publicly traded, multinational conglomerate headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. It primarily operates in four areas of business: aerospace, building technologies, performance materials and technologies (PMT), and safety and productivity solutions (SPS).
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.55% per annum.
- HON price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $202.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.55% per annum.
- HON price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HON price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2020
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 5.3147
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0626
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0626) – 1
= 28.44%
November 10, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y326)
= Exp(a + b × X326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3147 + 0.0000 × 470 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.4198)
= $225.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y326)
= Exp(a + b × X326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3147 + 0.0000 × 470 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.1695)
= $175.83
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3147 + 0.0000 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.3653)
= $213.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3147 + 0.0000 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.1151)
= $166.51
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.55% per annum.
- HON price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $202.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2023
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 4.5850
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0300
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0300) – 1
= 12.76%
August 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,466 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5850 + 0.0004 × 1,466 + 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(5.2601)
= $192.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,466 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5850 + 0.0004 × 1,466 – 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(5.1400)
= $170.71
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5850 + 0.0004 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(5.4095)
= $223.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5850 + 0.0004 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(5.2893)
= $198.21
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.55% per annum.
- HON price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.