Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Honeywell International Inc. is an American publicly traded, multinational conglomerate headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. It primarily operates in four areas of business: aerospace, building technologies, performance materials and technologies (PMT), and safety and productivity solutions (SPS).
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.62% per annum.
- HON price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $195.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.00% per annum.
- HON price at the close of May 3, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HON price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 13, 2020
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 5.3260
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0626
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0626) – 1
= 28.46%
November 13, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y387)
= Exp(a + b × X387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 557 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3260 + 0.0000 × 557 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.4263)
= $227.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y387)
= Exp(a + b × X387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 557 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3260 + 0.0000 × 557 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.1759)
= $176.96
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3260 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.3696)
= $214.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3260 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.1192)
= $167.20
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.62% per annum.
- HON price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $195.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2022
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 5.0951
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0524
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0524) – 1
= 23.31%
February 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y694)
= Exp(a + b × X694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,004 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0951 + 0.0001 × 1,004 + 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(5.3077)
= $201.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y694)
= Exp(a + b × X694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,004 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0951 + 0.0001 × 1,004 – 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(5.0981)
= $163.72
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0951 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(5.3957)
= $220.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0951 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(5.1862)
= $178.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.00% per annum.
- HON price at the close of May 3, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.