CSX Corporation (CSX)
CSX Corporation is an American holding company focused on rail transportation and real estate in North America, among other industries. Based in Richmond, Virginia, USA after the merger, in 2003 the CSX Corporation headquarters moved to Jacksonville, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.02% per annum.
- CSX price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $33.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.10% per annum.
- CSX price at the close of May 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2020
End date: December 13, 2023
a = 3.4407
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0679
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0679) – 1
= 31.23%
November 10, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y386)
= Exp(a + b × X386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 558 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4407 + 0.0000 × 558 + 2 × 0.0679)
= Exp(3.5762)
= $35.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y386)
= Exp(a + b × X386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 558 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4407 + 0.0000 × 558 – 2 × 0.0679)
= Exp(3.3045)
= $27.23
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4407 + 0.0000 × 1,686 + 2 × 0.0679)
= Exp(3.5755)
= $35.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4407 + 0.0000 × 1,686 – 2 × 0.0679)
= Exp(3.3037)
= $27.21
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.02% per annum.
- CSX price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $33.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: April 29, 2024
a = 2.8669
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0538
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0538) – 1
= 24.03%
September 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y850)
= Exp(a + b × X850 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8669 + 0.0004 × 1,232 + 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(3.4494)
= $31.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y850)
= Exp(a + b × X850 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8669 + 0.0004 × 1,232 – 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(3.2340)
= $25.38
April 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8669 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(3.6775)
= $39.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8669 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(3.4621)
= $31.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.10% per annum.
- CSX price at the close of May 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.